处理效应模型中“平衡性”的概念内涵与作用机制研究
作者:
作者单位:

1.广州大学经济与统计学院;2.中国科学院大学经济与管理学院


Myths and Facts on the Concept of "Balance" in Treatment Effects Studies
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University;2.School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    “平衡性”的概念在处理效应研究中有着重要作用,但它在实证研究中较易引起误解与混淆。本文基于Rubin因果范式,分析“平衡性”的内涵与作用,发现有三种意义上的平衡性:条件(无条件)独立性(I型平衡)、处理/控制组协变量经验分布相似性(II型平衡)、倾向得分的平衡得分性(III型平衡)。条件(无条件)独立性来源于非混淆性假设;经验分布相似性来源于数据交叠性假设;平衡得分性是倾向得分的固有性质,无关于非混淆性。对文献进行文本分析,发现混淆不同含义的平衡性导致一些误区,譬如认为随机实验中必有协变量平衡,协变量非平衡说明非混淆性假设失效,混淆协变量平衡(II型)与倾向得分的平衡得分性(III型),混淆标准化差异与Imai-Ratkovic过度识别检验的作用,使用双样本t检验度量协变量平衡。通过蒙特卡洛模拟进行检验,模拟结果证实本文的观点。

    Abstract:

    The concept of "Balance" has an important role in treatment effects studies. However, it is often misunderstood and misinterpreted. In this article, we investigate the concept of "Balance", its essence and function. We find that instead of one, there are three different types of balance: the conditional (or unconditional) independence between treatment variable and covariates (Type I balance), the similarity of empirical distributions between treated group and control group (Type II balance), the balancing property of propensity score (Type III balance). The conditional (unconditional) independence is powered by the unconfoundedness assumption, while the similarity of empirical distributions is backed by the overlap assumption. The propensity score has balancing property as an innate quality, not in relation to unconfoundedness assumption. Analyzing several related papers, we find several incorrect views caused by mixing different types of balance, such as "In a randomized experiment, covariates must be balanced", "The object of observational study is to mimic a completely randomized experiment", "Covariates imbalance signifies failure of unconfoundedness assumption", "Normalized difference can measure the balancing property of propensity score", "Normalized difference and Imai-Ratkovic overidentification test serve same purpose", "Two sample t-test is suitable for checking covariates balance". We conduct four Monte Carlo simulations, and their results confirm our viewpoints.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-27
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-20
  • 录用日期:2025-03-01
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