商品期货期限结构因子与股票市场:跨市场信息价值与传导机制
作者:
作者单位:

1.厦门大学;2.厦门大学管理学院财务学系

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Commodity Futures Term Structure Factor and Stock Market: Cross-Market Information Value and Transmission Mechanism
Affiliation:

Xiamen University

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    本文从中国市场工业品商品期货价格中提取期限结构因子,发现其在2016年之后对于供应链相关公司股票的未来一天收益率具有显著正向预测力,这种预测力并不能被常见的股票定价因子、商品期货的价格时间序列、趋势因子以及曲率因子所覆盖,同时这一预测力也在中长期消失。这表明中国期货市场已经成为快速反映实体经济和大宗商品市场预期的专业交易场所。工业品期限结构因子捕捉了期货市场交易者对缺货风险所要求的风险补偿,其跨市场流动主要是以私有信息的方式,通过日间交易传导到工业行业股票上,随后进一步扩散到其他行业和整个股市中,是股市投资者对工业品领域的专业性不足带来的一种延迟反应和信息消化过程。

    Abstract:

    This article extracts a term structure factor from the industrial commodity futures prices in the Chinese market. It finds that this factor has a significant positive predictive power for the next-day returns of supply-chain-related stocks from 2016. This predictive power cannot be explained by common stock pricing factors, commodity futures market price time series, trend factors, and curvature factors. Additionaly, this predictive power diminishes in the medium and long term. This indicates that the Chinese commodity futures market has become a marketplace that rapidly reflects the real economy and expectations of the commodity market. The industrial term structure factor captures the risk compensation for stock-out demanded by futures market participants. Its cross-market flow is primarily in the form of private information, transmitting to industrial sector stocks via intraday trading, and subsequently spreading to other sectors and the entire stock market. This predictive power results from to the process of delayed response and information absorption caused by the lack of expertise of stock market investors in the industrial sector.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-13
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-11
  • 录用日期:2025-04-03
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