内生于心理偏好的资产定价模型
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首都经济贸易大学

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72103145)。


A theoretical asset pricing model with consumption risk endogenous to preferences
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Capital University of Economics and Business

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    摘要:

    消费资产定价模型将消费风险视为不变常数,长期风险模型认为消费风险外生且时变,并包含一个长期风险成份。本文在此两代经典资产定价模型基础之上,提出了消费风险内生于心理偏好的资产定价模型,并推广到一般均衡框架。本模型中,消费风险的数据生成过程内生于主观贴现、跨期替代和风险态度三大心理偏好。改进后的模型较好地匹配了消费和资产价格数据,并通过了持续性、预测性和协整检验,能够稳健地解释资产价格。本文尝试将消费风险内生于人的心理偏好,推进了理论资产定价领域的研究。本文的现实意义体现为,偏好会通过消费风险决定资产价格,当中国人口结构变迁带来的人的心理偏好改变时,资产价格将出现趋势性改变。

    Abstract:

    This paper aims to introduce the endogenous consumption risks into the theoretical asset pricing model. We first study the risk of consumption fluctuations in preferences based on empirical evidence. The CFPS data of China shows that: The more risk averse the group is, the less willing it is to take the risk of consumption fluctuations. The degree of risk aversion is positively determining short-run consumption risk. (2) Time preference and elasticity intertemporal substitution positively determine the long-run consumption risk. Subsequently, we incorporate empirical evidence into the standard LRR model of Bansal and Yaron (2004). Our theoretical model fits the real data well under the condition of reasonable parameter values (subjective discount factor ?=0.9975, intertemporal of substitution elasticity ψ=0.1526, relative risk aversion γ=2.3045). In the same combination of parameters, the risk premium simulated by the standard LRR model is much lower than the real data, and the "The puzzle of equity premium" appears. In the standard long-run risk model, this paper treats consumption risk endogenously as a function of preference rather than an exogenous process, which explains China's consumption and asset prices well.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-20
  • 录用日期:2025-12-05
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