新发展格局下国际经济不确定性与中国企业“走出去”战略 ——来自跨境并购的证据
作者:
作者单位:

1.西安交通大学管理学院;2.厦门大学管理学院

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目(24BGL283)


International Economic Uncertainty and the “Go Global” Strategy of Chinese Enterprises under the New Development Pattern ——Evidence from cross-border M&A
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University;2.School of Management, Xiamen University

Fund Project:

National Social Science Fund of china(24BGL283)

  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    面临世界百年未有之大变局,国际经济不确定性陡升,而中国企业如何在新发展格局下高质量践行“走出去”战略,对于增强国内国际两个市场两种资源的联动效应起着至关重要的作用。本文利用机器学习方法构建不同国家和地区的经济不确定性指数,并基于文本分析方法刻画随企业出口业务伴生的国际经济风险敞口,从而构建个体企业层面面临的国际经济不确定性风险程度,并探讨其对跨境并购决策的影响。研究结果发现,国际经济不确定性风险敞口较高的企业,实施跨境并购的意愿更强。异质性分析揭示了风险对冲预期和技术寻求动机是上述现象的两条潜在驱动机制。进一步的经济后果分析表明,国际经济不确定性驱动下的企业跨境并购有助于提升企业估值与全要素生产率,促进新质生产力发展,助力企业在更高层次上的国内大循环和国际循环的结合与互动中实现新格局下的高质量发展。

    Abstract:

    In the face of unprecedented changes in the world, international economic uncertainty has increased sharply. This study attempts to explore how Chinese enterprises can implement the “ go global” strategy with high quality under the new development pattern, which plays a crucial role in strengthening the linkage effect between domestic and international markets and resources. This study utilizes machine learning techniques to create economic uncertainty indices for various countries and regions. Through text analysis methods, we illustrate the international economic risk exposure associated with enterprise export business. This study attempts to leverage the level of risk that individual enterprises face due to international economic uncertainty and its impact on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decision-making. The findings suggest that firms with higher exposure to international economic uncertainty are more likely to engage in cross-border M&A. The heterogeneity analyses indicate that risk-hedging expectations and technology-seeking motives may be driving factors behind this trend. Further economic consequence analysis indicates that cross-border M&As driven by international economic uncertainty contribute to improving firm valuation and total factor productivity, promoting the development of new quality productivity. This, in turn, can support firms to achieve high quality development through the combination and interaction of domestic and international cycles at a higher level.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-03
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-19
  • 录用日期:2025-03-10
您是第4185922位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2025 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn