This paper aims to investigate the predictive ability of capital flows from futures companies on the Longhu List Members (LLM) on the returns of the commodity futures. By constructing a TopOI factor using futures position data of LLM, this paper reveals that the capital flows of LLM can significantly positively predict future returns of commodity futures. A Long-Short portfolio based on the TopOI factor achieves an annualized excess return of 9.776%, with particularly notable performance before the release of important information and among state-owned LLM. Further analysis indicates that state-owned LLM hold net short positions most of the time under various macroeconomic conditions. However, after the implementation of the new Securities Law in 2020, their short-selling activities significantly reduced, and the predictive power of the TopOI factor markedly declined, especially for commodities with high private information. This research not only provides a "position trend" perspective for understanding the relationship between capital flows and futures returns but also shows that regular information disclosure and regulatory reforms have significant effects on combating informed trading, offering empirical evidence for the formulation of relevant regulatory policies.