重大基础设施工程管理策划情景推演研究: 以黄茅海跨海通道为例
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作者单位:

1.华东理工大学;2.广东省公路建设有限公司;3.广州航海学院;4.南京大学

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);上海市白玉兰人才计划浦江项目


Research on scenario planning of mega infrastructure construction management planning: A case study of Huangmaohai link project
Author:
Affiliation:

1.East China University of Science and Technology;2.Guangdong Provincial Highway Construction Co. Ltd.;3.Guangzhou Maritime University;4.Nanjing University

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan);Shanghai Pujiang Programme

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    摘要:

    重大基础设施工程管理策划面临大量全局性决策和复杂性问题,但缺乏完备的信息,无法仅依赖基于规则的策划逻辑。本文聚焦重大工程管理策划,旨在揭示重大工程管理策划情景推演的逻辑过程,构建重大工程管理策划情景推演的理论框架。基于黄茅海跨海通道案例研究,归纳了重大工程管理策划的核心要素及其情景推演的逻辑过程,构建了重大工程管理策划情景推演的理论框架。研究发现,重大工程管理策划情景推演的逻辑过程是循环于未来情景推测、现状解析、路径演绎与筛选之间的反复推演,直至找到某条(些)路径能够使关键问题得到合理解决。本研究将有助于丰富我国重大工程管理理论体系,并为重大工程管理策划实践提供科学的指导。

    Abstract:

    The construction management planning of mega infrastructures entangles numerous overall decisions and complex issues, yet the related information remains inadequate. It thus could not merely rely on conventional rule-based planning strategies. This research focuses on the scenario planning of mega infrastructure construction management planning, aiming to reveal the logical process of scenario planning and develop a theoretical framework for the scenario planning of mega infrastructure construction management planning. Based on a case study of Huangmaohai link project, it identified the major elements and logical relationships among elements in scenario planning of mega infrastructure construction management planning. A theoretical framework for scenario planning of mega infrastructure construction management planning was developed accordingly. The findings indicate that the logical process of mega infrastructure construction management planning involves iterative scenario planning among expected future scenarios, situation analysis, and pathway simulation and selection, until key problems are fully addressed. This study is conducive to enriching the theoretical system of mega projects in China and providing guidance for mega infrastructure construction management planning.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-13
  • 录用日期:2025-11-20
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