In the evolution of the AI service ecosystem, product competition in the end-user market significantly influences the technology licensing decisions of AI service providers and the technology adoption behavior of traditional service firms, thereby shaping the ecosystem’s evolutionary trajectory and resilience. This paper constructs a game-theoretic model to analyze how key factors—such as economies of scale, ecological feedback effects, and AI technology conversion rates—affect AI technology licensing strategies, market competition structure, and social welfare. The results reveal that: (1) economies of scale and ecological feedback effects play a crucial role in firms’ strategic choices regarding licensing and adoption; (2) the AI technology conversion rate determines the licensing equilibrium but may lead to social efficiency losses under certain conditions; and (3) the entry of third-party AI providers may disrupt existing technological cooperation patterns and reshape interfirm competitive relationships. This study provides theoretical insights into AI licensing mechanisms within service ecosystems and offers managerial implications for the sustainable development of the AI industry.