股市政策对股票市场的影响——基于投资者社会互动的视角
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作者单位:

1.上海外国语大学;2.浙江大学

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830.91

基金项目:

浙江省之江青年计划项目(16ZJQN032YB);国家自然科学基金(编号71873089)


The effect of policy on stock markets: an empirical study based on investors' social interaction
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1.Shanghai International Studies University;2.Zhejiang University

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    摘要:

    本文将影响股市的政策分为五类,检验股市的政策效应;并以新浪财经博客为投资者之间社会互动的媒介,利用文本挖掘技术和社会网络研究方法,构建反映投资者之间社会互动程度、情绪属性以及社会网络中心程度的变量,探讨社会互动对股市政策效应的影响。实证研究表明,舆论导向政策对股市收益率存在显著的正向影响;证券供给需求性政策、货币政策显著提高股市波动率,市场创新与市场交易制度显著降低市场波动率。同时,投资者对专业性政策的解读显著依赖于社会互动,社会互动会放大货币政策对股市收益率的正向影响,加剧证券供给需求性政策对股市波动的影响,平缓市场创新与市场交易制度对股市波动的影响,而不影响舆论导向政策对股市产生的效应。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, we test the policy effect in the stock market and the impact of social interaction on policy effect. The stock market policy is divided into five categories. Based on Sina Finance and Economics Blog, we build variables about social interaction, investor sentiment, and social network centrality by making use of the technology of text mining and social network. Empirical studies show that public opinion-oriented policies have a significant positive impact on stock market returns; securities supply-demand policies and monetary policies significantly increase stock market volatility, and market innovation and market trading policies significantly reduce market volatility. Furthermore, as investors' interpretation of the professional policy is significantly dependent on social interaction, social interaction can magnify the impact of securities supply-demand policy and monetary policy on the stock market, while alleviating the impact of market innovation and market trading policy on the stock market. However, the effect of public opinion policy on the stock market is not influenced by social interaction.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-15
  • 最后修改日期:2019-07-31
  • 录用日期:2019-08-01
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