中国股市的“开盘效应”与“收盘效应”
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南京大学商学院

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中国博士后科学基金,国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


The opening and closing effects of China’s stock market
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School of Business, Nanjing University

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    摘要:

    股票市场的“日历效应”历来受到学者和投资者的广泛关注,研究发现股市存在 “节日效应”、“月份效应”与“周内效应”,但是针对“日内效应”的研究不多见。本文利用沪深股指2004 -2016年的高频数据,实证检验中国股市是否存在“日内效应”,结果表明:我国股市整体上存在 “开盘效应”与“收盘效应”,但在牛熊市期间的表现形式存在差异,股指收益在牛市期间表现出正向“开盘效应”,在熊市期间表现出负向“开盘效应”,股指波动在熊市期间的“开盘效应”更为明显。基于滚动窗口法的进一步研究发现:股指收益“开盘效应”和“收盘效应”的变化领先于股指走势的变化,股指收益和波动的“开盘效应”或“收盘效应”存在一定程度的替代现象。本文的研究有助于投资者合理地制定投资策略,对监管部门维护市场秩序具有一定的参考价值。

    Abstract:

    The calendar effects of stock market have attracted extensive attention from scholars and investors. Many studies have found the holiday effects, the month effects and the weekday effects of stock market, however, few studies focus on the intraday effects. Using the high frequency data of China’s stock index returns in 2014-2016, this paper empirically examines the intraday effects of China’s stock market. Results indicate the overall existence of the opening and closing effects in China’s stock market. However, the opening and closing effects exhibit different performance between bear and bull markets. Stock index return has positive opening effects during bull markets and has negative opening effects during bear markets, while the stock index volatility has more obvious opening and closing effects during bear markets than during bull markets. The study using rolling windows further shows that the changes in the opening and closing effects of stock index return occur earlier than stock index and the opening or closing effects of stock index return and volatility exhibit the alternative phenomenon to some extent. Our study can help investors to develop investment strategy more rationally and provide certain references for the regulation and maintenance of market order.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-02-16
  • 录用日期:2020-02-16
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