基于CPT效用的养老金补缴内涵价值分析——以山东省1978-2016年经验数据为例
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中国人民大学财政金融学院

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F842.6

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国家自然科学基金项目 编号71501178 国家社科基金重大项目 编号13&ZD164


An intrinsic value analysis of one-time payment policy based on CPT utility —Taking Shandong Province’s 1978-2016 empirical data as an example
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School of Finance, Renmin University of China

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    摘要:

    伴随着城市化进程,农村外出务工人员如何实现与城镇职工养老保险接轨,实现更高的养老效用是亟待解决的问题。2015年开始,山东等地出台了养老金一次性补缴政策,允许包括农村外出务工人员在内的企业职工通过一次性补缴参保城镇企业职工基本养老保险。但是,担心养老金领取金额低于缴费金额的顾虑导致了参保意愿不足的情况。本文采用行为金融中的CPT(Cumulative Prospect Theory,累积前景理论)效用描述参保人在有限理性下的风险偏好,并计算这一保守估计下的养老金补缴内涵价值。结果表明,即使考虑到对损失的厌恶以及主观概率的扭曲,实际补缴金额仍显著低于其内涵价值。此外,在满足最低缴费年限后,持续缴费至退休能够实现更高的效用。

    Abstract:

    Along with the process of urbanization, how rural migrant workers can get in line with the endowment insurance for urban employees and realize higher old-care utility are urgent issues remain to be solved. Since 2015, some areas including Shandong Province have introduced one-time payment policy for endowment insurance, allowing the employees of enterprises, including migrant workers from rural areas, to buy the urban employees’ basic endowment insurance through one-time payment. Nonetheless, people’s concern about the circumstance that the total amount of benefits would be lower than the total amount of contributions leads to their unwillingness to buy insurance. This paper primarily aims to depict the risk preference of the insured with limited rationality based on Cumulative Prospect Theory, and calculates the intrinsic value under this conservative estimation. The results indicate that the amount required by the one-time payment policy is still significantly lower than the intrinsic value, even considering the loss aversion and the subjective probability distortion. In addition, after fulfilling the required minimum payment, continuous payment until retirement could further improve the old-care utility.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-24
  • 最后修改日期:2019-07-27
  • 录用日期:2019-07-28
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