应对人口老龄化的养老金最优配比问题研究
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作者单位:

1.中国人民大学 财政金融学院;2.中国人民大学 统计学院

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中图分类号:

F840 C979

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重点项目(批准号:21AZD028)“构建金融有效支持实体经济着力点的体制机制研究”


Optimal Mix of Pension Schemes Coping with the Population Aging
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Affiliation:

1.School of Finance,Renmin University of China;2.School of Finance, Renmin University of China;3.School of Statistics, Renmin University of China

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    摘要:

    为了应对人口老龄化对现收现付制养老金体系的冲击,世界各经济体提出了多支柱养老金的协调发展战略。我们观察到各经济体在现收现付型养老金和累积型养老金间配比的异质性,这与‘Samuelson-Aaron’准则的结论不符。本文建立了个体参保人和政府决策的Nash均衡。基于政府设定的现收现付型和累积型养老金缴费率,参保人通过选择最优消费和储蓄来实现效用的最大化。政府则充分了解参保人的反馈函数,并通过选取最优的现收现付型和累积型养老金的缴费率,实现全体参保人效用的最大化。结果显示,工作期(未来期)参保人和退休期参保人对养老金的偏好顺序是异质的,且受到回报效率等外生变量的影响。在人口老龄化和经济增速放缓的背景下,人口增长率或工资增长率的降低将削弱现收现付型养老金的相对回报效率,降低其最优缴费比例。其次,提升累积型养老金的投资回报率,增大税收优惠幅度,有助于提升其相对回报效率和最优缴费比例。最后,渐进式延迟退休政策使得累积型养老金相对回报效率的优势进一步凸显。延迟退休政策也提升了参保人的退休期消费水平和养老保障效果。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: In order to cope with the impact of population aging on the pay as you go (PAYGO) pension system, various economies have proposed a coordinated development strategy of multi-pillar pensions. We observed heterogeneity in the allocation of PAYGO pension and funded pension among different economies, which contradicts the ‘Samuelson-Aaron’ criterion. This article establishes a Nash equilibrium between individual and government decision-making. Based on the government's PAYGO and funded pension contribution rates, individuals achieve maximum utility by selecting optimal consumption and individual savings. The government is fully aware of the feedback function of individuals and maximizes the utility of all individuals by selecting the optimal PAYGO and funded pension contribution rates. The results show that the preference order for pension schemes among working (future) cohorts and retirement cohort is heterogeneous, and is influenced by the exogeneous variables such as return efficiency of the pensions. Against the backdrop of aging population and slowing economic growth, a decrease in population growth rate or wage growth rate will weaken the relative return efficiency of PAYGO pension and lower its optimal contribution ratio. Meanwhile, increasing the investment return rate of funded pension and increasing tax incentives can help to improve its relative return efficiency as well as its contribution rate. Moreover, the gradual delayed retirement policy further highlights the advantage of funded pension in terms of relative return efficiency. The delayed retirement policy has also increased the retirement consumption level of individuals and enhanced their old-care efficiency.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-07
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-31
  • 录用日期:2024-02-10
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