光伏扶贫与地区经济增长—基于中国722个贫困县2013-2019年面板数据的实证研究
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1.天津财经大学金融学院;2.南开大学周恩来政府管理学院;3.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

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国家自然科学(72004156;71774153;71834004);国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0608600);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助.


Photovoltaic poverty alleviation policy and regional economic growth-An empirical study using panel data of 722 poor counties in China from 2013 to 2019
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1.School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics;2.Zhou Enlai School of Government, Nankai University;3.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    光伏扶贫是我国十大精准扶贫工程之一,准确认识光伏扶贫政策的减贫作用机理及其政策效果对未来进一步完善相关政策设计、持续推进我国减贫事业发展至关重要。本文基于2013-2019年我国722个贫困县的面板数据,采用连续空间双重差分(SDID)模型,首次定量评估了光伏扶贫政策对促进我国贫困地区经济协同增长的政策效果,从理论上揭示并实证检验了光伏扶贫政策促进经济增长的作用机制。结果表明:(1)光伏扶贫政策显著地推动了我国贫困县的经济增长,贫困县当地每增加1MW光伏装机将带动贫困县人均GDP增长0.43%-0.44%。(2)当地光伏扶贫政策对周边贫困县经济增长具有显著的空间溢出效应,每增加1MW光伏装机将带动周边贫困县人均GDP增长0.14%-0.15%。另外,实证结果表明政策的空间溢出效应呈现明显的空间衰减趋势,在空间距离200公里时空间溢出效应最为显著,超过650公里时政策溢出效应不再显著。综合直接和间接效应,我国光伏扶贫县每增加1MW光伏装机,722个贫困县的人均GDP增长率平均提高约0.57%-0.59%,人均GDP增加约128.28-132.79元。(3)光伏扶贫政策对于不同贫困县的经济增长促进效果具有显著的异质性,其对西部贫困县、人口密度较高以及人均GDP较低的深度贫困县经济增长的促进效果更为显著,光伏装机规模每增长1MW,西部贫困县人均GDP增长率较东部贫困县高0.23%,深度贫困县的人均GDP增长率较非深度贫困县高0.38%,而人口密度较高的贫困县的人均GDP增长率较人口密度低贫困县高0.30%。(4)政策作用机理分析表明,光伏扶贫政策通过就业效应、投资效应、消费效应以及经济结构调整效应多条渠道带动贫困县经济协同增长,光伏扶贫地区光伏装机规模每增长1MW,当地贫困县就业率提高0.16%、固定资产投资增长0.20%、社会消费品零售总额增加0.68%,第一产业占比下降0.10%。本研究揭示了我国光伏扶贫政策对促进贫困县经济增长的作用机理及其政策效果,为未来我国光伏扶贫政策的进一步推广和完善提供决策参考。

    Abstract:

    As a targeted poverty alleviation policy, the photovoltaic poverty alleviation policy (PPAP) plays an important role to reduce rural poverty in China. An ex-post quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of PPAP is crucial to improve the policy to further promote poverty reduction in China. Based on the panel data of 722 poor counties in China from 2013 to 2019, this paper builds a continuous spatial difference-in differences (SDID) model and quantitatively evaluates the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of PPAP on promoting economic growth of the poor counties in China. The results show that PPAP has a significant effect on the economic growth of poor counties. Specifically, the average growth rate of GDP per capita in the targeted poor counties increases by 0.43%-0.44% with per MW of solar PV capacity being installed. Meanwhile, as a result of the spillover effect of the policy, the average growth rate of GDP per capita in the neighboring poor counties increases by 0.14%-0.15%. Moreover, we find that such spillover effect will not be significant when the geographical distance among poor counties is larger than 650km. Thus, the total effect of the PPAP is estimated to be that, with per MW of solar PV capacity being installed the average growth rate of GDP per capita in all the poor countries will increases by between 0.57% and 0.59%, and accordingly the GDP increases by between 128.28 and 132.79 RMB. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of PPAP seems more significant in China’s western, extreme poor counties and high-population density counties. In specific, with per MW of solar PV being installed, the growth rate of per capital GDP of western poor counties will be 0.23% higher than that of eastern poor counties, thegrowth rate of per capital GDP of extreme poor counties will be 0.38% higher than that of non-extreme poor counties and the growth rate of per capital GDP of western high-population density counties will be 0.30% higher than that of low-population density counties. The mechanism analysis shows that PPAP can promote the economic growth of poor counties via the employment effect, investment effect, consumption effect and economic structure effect. Specifically, with per MW of solar PV capacity being installed, the employment rate, the fixed asset investment, and the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 0.16%, 0.20% and 0.68%, and the proportion of primary industry will decrease by 0.10%, respectively. This study reveals the mechanism and policy effectiveness of PPAP on economic growth in China’s poor counties, and provides key policy implications for the improvement of Chinese poverty alleviation policies in future.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-16
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-13
  • 录用日期:2024-03-01
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