政策宣告能否得到资本市场有效支持?基于“碳中和”概念股的证据
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大连理工大学

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F832.5

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国家自然科学基金项目(72001033; 72141304; 71901160),科技部重点研发项目课题 (2022YFC3303304),辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L21CJY006)。


Can the Marco policy release get efficient support from the capital market? Evidence from the “Carbon neutralization” concept stocks
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Dalian University of Technology

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    摘要:

    碳达峰与碳中和的实现已经成为政府工作与企业改革发展的主要目标之一。本文基于同花顺碳中和概念板块的数据,研究了资本市场对这一政策目标的反馈,并基于各类订单交易和社会层面关注数据,实证解释了政策效应可能的来源。研究表明,相较于具有类似特征的对照组股票,碳中和概念股在双碳目标宣布后具有显著正向的收益表现,且这一反馈具有提前性;各类订单交易在政策效应中扮演了不同的角色,对碳中和概念股回报的正向反馈主要来自于市场中规模最大的超大单交易,影响在政策宣告后、概念股推出前便已显著存在,而中单和小单交易未能起到支持作用,揭示了机构投资者的重要作用;社会层面的关注在资本市场对双碳政策的反馈中也扮演了重要作用,百度指数相关搜索能显著提高碳中和概念股回报,强化超大单交易带来的显著正向的影响,加快积极信息吸收速度。综上,本文反映了资本市场对国家宏观政策和热点话题的积极反馈,并揭示了市场中超大订单交易的重要作用,对于鼓励企业进一步开拓和扩展双碳相关举措,以实现资本市场和实体经济发展的相互促进具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    The realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization has become one of the main goals of government and enterprise reform. Based on data from the carbon-neutral concept plate from iFinD, this paper empirically analyzes the supporting role of the capital market on the Macro policy release, studies the feedback of the capital market on this policy goal, and gives an empirical explanation of the policy effect based on various order trading data and social attention data. As the findings show, compared with the control group of stocks with similar characteristics, carbon neutral concept stocks have significantly positive return performances compared with the control group of stocks with similar characteristics after the announcement of the dual carbon goal, and this positive feedback is in advance; trading data of different kinds of orders play heterogeneous roles in the policy effect. The positive return feedback of carbon-neutral concept stocks mainly comes from the super-large tradings, this influence appears since the policy is announced and before the concept stocks are launched, while the medium and small tradings fail to play a supporting role, revealing the important role of institutional investors; the social-level attention also plays an important role in the feedback on the dual carbon policy. Baidu search-index data can significantly improve the return of carbon-neutral concept stocks, strengthen the significant positive impact of super-large tradings and speed up information absorption. To sum up, this paper reports the positive feedback of the capital market on the national macro policies and reveals the important role of super-large orders in the market. Findings are of great importance to encourage enterprises to develop and expand double-carbon-related initiatives and ultimately achieve the joint promotion of the capital market and the real economy.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-28
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-23
  • 录用日期:2024-02-25
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