重大工程管理决策复杂性及复杂性降解原理
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N94

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国家自然科学基金重大资助项目( 71390522; 71390521) ; 国家自然科学基金资助项目( 71571057)


Complexity and its degradation theory of megaproject management decisions
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    摘要:

    重大工程管理系统是一类典型的复杂系统.如何认识该系统的复杂性特征并应对复杂性带来的挑战一直是重大工程管理领域的研究热点.以重大工程管理决策过程为例,构建了一个决策概念模型,描述了决策关联性、认知模糊性和偏差性、知识有限性等复杂性因素对重大工程管理决策过程的影响.进而在决策关联性和信息不完备性的复杂性框架下,将重大工程管理决策的复杂性划分为"混沌"、"冲突"、"关联"和"混杂"四种类型.根据该复杂性特征分类,提出了包括"复杂性探索"、"复杂性吸收"、"复杂性分解"和"复杂性承担"四个基本逻辑策略的重大工程管理决策"复杂性降解"原理,揭示了重大工程管理决策实践的复杂自组织规律,说明了重大工程管理决策复杂性的内生性及动态演化特征.最后,应用"港珠澳"大桥桥面铺装工程的管理决策实践论证了"复杂性降解"原理,并讨论了该原理对重大工程管理带来的启示.

    Abstract:

    Management of megaprojects is a typical complex system. The characteristics of megaproject complexity,and how to solve such complexity,are popular in the field of project management. A conceptual model is established to study the effects of complex factors,such as decision relevance,cognitive ambiguity and bias,and limited knowledge,on megaproject management. Then,in a complexity framework of decision relevance and incomplete information,the complexities associated with megaproject management decisions are divided into four types: “chaos”,“conflict”,“relevance”,and “hybrid”complexities. In accordance with those four types of complexity,this paper proposes a“complexity degradation”theory that consists of four basic logical strategies: complexity exploration,complexity absorption,complexity decomposition,and complexity tolerance. The complexity degradation theory reveals a complex self-organization law in the practice of megaproject management decision-making,and illustrates the endogenous and dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the complexities involved in megaproject management decisions. Finally,the complexity degradation theory is verified through the management decision-making practices of a deck pavement project for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge,which provides an enlightening illustration of the complexity degradation theory and its application to megaproject management.

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麦 强,盛昭瀚,安 实,高星林.重大工程管理决策复杂性及复杂性降解原理[J].管理科学学报,2019,22(8):17~32

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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