The analysts’forecasting behavior often has bias. In the stock market bubble period,the analysts are often irrational and over-optimistic. When the bubble crashes,the analysts issue the opposite earnings forecasts and downgrade stock recommendations. Traditional theories can’t explain this fact clearly. This paper tries to introduce the catering theory and applies a reputation game model to analyze the analysts’catering behavior. The theoretical model shows that,because investors can’t obtain the feedback timely,they will infer analysts’reputation according to their prior beliefs and the analysts’forecasts. In order to build a good reputation,the analysts are likely to cater investors’prior beliefs and issue biased forecasts. The evidence based on China also shows that analysts’forecasts are affected by the investors’prior beliefs,i. e. ,sentiment,which exhibits obvious catering behavior. This supports the theoretical expectations of the reputation game model.
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YOU Jia-xing, QIU Shi-yuan, LIU Chun.证券分析师预测“变脸”行为研究——基于分析师声誉的博弈模型与实证检验[J].管理科学学报,2013,16(6):67~84