恢复力减少了灾害的多少损失———基于改进 CGE 模型的实证研究
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F224

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国家自然科学基金资助项目( 91546117; 71373131) ; 国家社会科学基金规划资助项目( 17BGL142) ; 国家社科基金重大招标资助项目( 16ZDA047)


How much damage does resilience reduce: An empirical study based on improved CGE model
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    摘要:

    恢复力因素是灾害损失评估中需要考虑的重要因素,但很少有文献定量评估恢复力在减少灾害损失中的作用.纳入灾害恢复力因素,对CGE模型进行改进,然后以北京市"7·21特大暴雨"灾害为例,对比分析恢复力在减少灾害损失中的作用.结果发现,在CGE模型的生产模块中纳入灾害恢复力因素,考察生产函数中劳动和资本要素的减少所引起的弹性参数值的变化,可以定量评估恢复力减少灾害影响的幅度.以北京市"7·21特大暴雨"为例,考虑恢复力因素后,灾害经济损失的各项指标均有所减少,各产业部门的恢复程度均有所不同.拓展了Rose等的研究,是灾害恢复力定量评估研究的有益补充,所得结果可为政府等部门开展恢复力建设和灾后应急管理工作提供实证参考.

    Abstract:

    Resilience factor is an important factor to be considered in disaster loss assessment; however,there are few literatures that quantitatively evaluated the effect of resilience on reducing disaster losses. In this paper,factors of disaster resilience are taken into consideration to improve the CGE model,and the“7·21 severe rainstorm”in Beijing is used as an example to compare and analyze the role of resilience in reducing disaster losses. The results show that the magnitude of disaster reduction caused by resilience can be quantitatively assessed,when incorporating the disaster resilience factors into the production module of CGE,by investigating the change of elastic parameter value caused by reduction of labor and capital factors in the production function. Taking the“7·21”rainstorm in Beijing city as an example,it is found that the loss rate of various economic indexes has been reduced after considering the resilience factor,and the recovery degree of each industry sector is different. This paper expands the series of researches on Rose and so on,and supplements the quantitative evaluation of disaster restoration. The results can provide an empirical reference for the government and other departments to carry out resilience construction and post disaster emergency management.

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吴先华,谭 玲,郭 际,周 蕾.恢复力减少了灾害的多少损失———基于改进 CGE 模型的实证研究[J].管理科学学报,2018,21(7):66~76

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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