网络效应、新兴产业演化与生态位培育——来自电动汽车行业的 ABM 仿真研究
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F403.6

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国家社会科学基金资助项目 (18BGL016)


Network effects, emerging industries evolution and niche cultivation: An agent-based modeling simulation from electric vehicle industry
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    摘要:

    有限的需求规模是制约电动汽车产业发展的关键因素,如何促进市场培育是电动汽车产业演化中亟待解决的重要问题.本文在分析汽车产业网络效应的特征及其存在性基础上,利用ABM框架构建了异质性厂商和消费者的决策模型,模拟仿真了网络效应下汽车产业演化的基本过程和市场需求的分布演化特征,进而讨论了充电基础设施建设对于电动汽车市场培育的差异化作用.结果表明:汽车产业中既存在着与用户规模有关的直接网络效应,也存在着与配套基础设施有关的间接网络效应;在汽车产业的演化过程中,传统汽车始终占据市场主导地位,电动汽车的市场份额十分有限;空间分布上,电动汽车市场需求呈现出"分散—集中"的态势;充电设施建设通过增强网络效应有效地刺激了消费者购买,其政策效果在电动汽车需求分布由分散趋于集中的阶段体现出来;与全局建设相比,局部建设依靠提高特定区域充电站的密度集中强化网络效应,从而增加了潜在消费者购买电动汽车的动力,加速了电动汽车市场需求规模的扩大.

    Abstract:

    The limited market demand is the key factor restricting the development of electric vehicle industry, and the market cultivation becomes an important and urgent problem to be solved in the evolution of electric vehicle industry. In this paper, the characteristics of network effects are firstly analyze d in the automobile industry and its existence is tested. A decision-making model including both heterogeneous manufacturers and consumers is constructed based on an agent-based framework to simulate the basic evolutionary process of auto industry under network effects and the distribution of market demand. The different effects of charging infrastructure construction for the electric vehicle market cultivation are then discussed. The results show that there exists both direct and indirect network effects separately concerning the user's size and complementary infrastructure in the auto industry. Conventional vehicles have been dominating the market during the evolution, leaving a very limited market share to EVs. Regarding the spatial distribution, the demand of electric vehicles shows a“decentralized-concentrated”trend in the simulation. The construction of charging infrastructure stimulates consumers' purchase willingness effectively by enhancing the network effects, which is demonstrated in the stage when the distribution of EV demand is turning from disperse to centralized. Compared with the overall construction, local construction can strengthen the network effects intensively by increasing the density of charging stations in specific areas to increase the willingness of potential consumers to buy electric cars, and therefore, accelerates the expansion of EVs' market demand.

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孙晓华,孙瑞,涂安娜.网络效应、新兴产业演化与生态位培育——来自电动汽车行业的 ABM 仿真研究[J].管理科学学报,2018,21(11):1~17

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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