带有主观死亡概率评估的退休后期最优投资-消费-年金化时刻决策
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作者单位:

1.中央财经大学中国精算研究院;2.中央财经大学

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中图分类号:

F830.59, F840.4

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Optimal investment, consumption and annuitization time post retirement with subjective mortality probabilities
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1.China Institute for Actuarial Science, Central University of Finance and Economics;2.Central University of Finance and Economics

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    摘要:

    考虑退休者的死亡风险和遗产效用, 研究了退休后期最优投资-消费-年金化时刻决策问题. 根据退休者在退休时刻对自身死亡概率的主观评估, 把退休者分为两大类: 第一类退休者自我评估以概率1活不到最大年金化时刻, 第二类退休者自我评估以一定概率活得过最大年金化时刻. 自退休时刻开始到死亡时刻或年金化时刻为止, 退休者要进行投资和消费决策. 假设最优的年金化时刻是使得年金化前后的累计消费效用均值以及遗产效用均值之和达到最大. 采取幂效用函数形式, 得到了最优投资-消费策略的解析解、第一类退休者在生存期内都不购买年金的条件以及第二类退休者选择在最大年金化时刻购买年金的条件. 利用数值分析方法, 详细分析了性别、生存周期、遗产效用、折现函数、风险厌恶系数、金融投资环境以及年金产品价格对退休者年金行为的影响.

    Abstract:

    This paper studies the optimal investment, consumption and annuitization time post retirement for the retirees with mortality risk and bequest utility. According to the subjective mortality probability at retirement, the retirees are divided into two main groups: the first group cannot live up to the maximum annuitization time with probability one; the second group can live up to the maximum annuitization time with a certain probability. Since retirement, the retirees need to determine the investment and consumption until the death time or the annuitization time. The optimal annuitization time is set to be the time that maximizes the sum of the accumulated expected consumption utilities before and after purchasing an annuity and the expected bequest utility. By adopting the power utility, this paper obtains the closed-form optimal investment-consumption strategy and the conditions under which the first group of the retirees do not buy the annuity throughout the lifetime and the second group buy the annuity at the maximum annuitization time. Finally, numerical analysis is provided to analyze the effects of gender, the survival period, the bequest utility, the discount function, the risk aversion, the financial environment and the annuity price on the annuitization behaviors of the retirees.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-10
  • 录用日期:2023-01-22
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