产业结构变迁对房价的时空动态效应研究 ——基于人口老龄化背景的实证分析
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F121. 3; F293. 3

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873117)


Spatial and temporal dynamic effects of industrial structure changes on housing price in the context of population aging
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    摘要:

    产业结构调整与房地产市场理性发展是我国当前面临的重要任务,人口老龄化程度的加深会对二者产生影响.本文利用2004年~2016年省际面板数据,采用空间动态面板模型分析人口老龄化背景下产业结构变迁对房价波动的时空效应.研究表明,在基于地理、经济和人口三个维度构建的空间权重矩阵下,我国房价均具有显著的空间相关特性,但在不同市场中表现出异质性;产业结构高级化能显著助推房价上涨,产业结构合理化对房价具有正向影响且效应可持续五期;进一步分析表明,人口老龄化和产业结构变迁对房价的影响在不同市场、不同区域间均存在显著差异;人口老龄化对房价的影响完全通过与产业结构高级化相互作用的间接途径实现.

    Abstract:

    The adjustment of industrial structure and rational development of the real estate market are important tasks in China at present. The deepening of population aging will affect both. Using the inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal effects of industrial structure changes on housing price fluctuations in the context of population aging with a spatial dynamic panel model. The results show that China’s housing prices have significant spatial correlations,though heterogeneous in different markets,no matter geographical,economic or demographic spatial weight matrices are used. The optimization of industrial structure can significantly promote housing prices,while the rationalization of industrial structure has a positive impact on housing prices and the effect is sustainable for five years. Further analyses show that the effects of population aging and industrial structure changes on housing prices are significantly different in different markets and different regions. The impact of population aging on housing prices is completely realized through the indirect interaction with the optimization of industrial structure.

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周建军,孙倩倩,鞠方.产业结构变迁对房价的时空动态效应研究 ——基于人口老龄化背景的实证分析[J].管理科学学报,2020,23(3):41~64

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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