奈特不确定性下的欧式期权定价区间
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F830.9

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873002; 71271003); 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(12YJA790041)


Pricing interval of European options under Knightian uncertainty
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    摘要:

    在Black-Scholes期权定价模型中引入等级参数测度金融市场上的奈特不确定性程度,提出奈特不确定性下欧式期权定价的新模型.设置可行控制集合定义等级参数为奈特不确定性测度,借助可行域上的容度获得奈特不确定性对偶测度,基于Black-Scholes期权定价模型构建欧式看涨看跌期权的定价区间;运用倒向随机微分方程获得定价区间的表达式;最后,基于2015年2月9日上市的上证50ETF期权的日收益数据为样本予以实证,并与Black-Scholes期权定价特征对比.结果表明,奈特不确定性环境下的欧式期权均衡价格不再是某一确定值,而是某一定价区间;期权标的资产当前价格越大,定价区间越大;期权到期时间越长,定价区间越大;定价区间随着奈特不确定性程度的增强而不断变大.研究指出奈特不确定性的客观存在降低了市场流动性,内生解释了“非市场参与”之谜,外生说明了“有限市场参与”特征,为投资者决策提出建议和金融市场监管提供经验证据.

    Abstract:

    A new model is proposed to price European options under Knightian uncertainty by introducing a grade parameter into the Black-Scholes option pricing model to measure the degree of Knightian uncertainty in the financial market. The paper defines the grade parameter as the measurement of Knight uncertainty through setting the feasible control set,gives the uncertainty’s dual measurement through the capacity of feasible region,and constructs the pricing interval of European call and put options based on the Black-Scholes option model. The backward stochastic differential equation( BSDE) is used to obtain the expression of pricing interval. An empirical study based on the daily returns of SSE 50ETF options,which were listed on February 9, 2015,is conducted and the results are compared with Black-Scholes option pricing. The results show that,under the environment of Knightian uncertainty,the option’s equilibrium price is a pricing interval instead of a certain value. The higher the spot price of the options’under lying asset,the larger the pricing interval; the longer the maturity,the larger the pricing interval. Further,the pricing interval increases with the the degree of Knightian uncertainty. The study shows that the existence of Knightian uncertainty reduces market liquidity, which endogenously explains the puzzle of“non-market participation”,exogenously demonstrates the characteristic of“limited market participation”,and offers a reference for investor’s decision andan empirical evidence for finance supervision.

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何朝林,王鹏,刘梦.奈特不确定性下的欧式期权定价区间[J].管理科学学报,2020,23(3):116~126

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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