多重环境规制对区域产业结构变动的时滞效应
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F205

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(71874074; 71904070; 71433005); 教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(18YJC630208; 19YJC630002); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(18LZUJBWYJ021)


Study on the time-lag effect of multiple environmental regulation policies on regional industrial structure change
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    摘要:

    探究环境规制政策对产业结构变动的时滞效应是理解政策在时间维度上影响产业结构变动的关键.选取京津冀及周边地区作为研究区域,通过量化分析2004年~2016年中央层面和京津冀及周边地区的环境规制政策,研究“中央+地方”多重环境规制政策对产业结构变动的时滞效应.结果表明:1)环境规制政策对产业结构变动的时滞效应是多期的,不同时期的影响效应不相同.产业结构变动亦是多期环境规制政策作用的结果,多期环境规制政策对产业结构变动的影响呈现倒“U”形.2)环境规制政策通常在颁布当年由于“冲击效应”对污染企业产生规制作用,但冲击往往是强烈且短暂的,会导致污染企业在短期内做出暂时性应对行为.3)环境规制政策从颁布后的第三年开始对产业结构变动发挥持续稳定的规制作用,使京津冀及周边地区第二产业结构向政策期望的方向变动.

    Abstract:

    Exploring the time-lag effect of environmental regulation policies on industrial structure change is the key to understand the impact of policies on industrial structure change in the time dimension. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions are selected as the research object. Through quantitative analysis of the environmental regulation policies at the central level and those of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions from 2004 to 2016,the time-lag effect of“central + local”multiple environmental regulation policies on industrial structure change is studied. The results show that: 1) The time-lag effect of environmental regulation policies on industrial structure change is multi-period,and the effect of environmental regulation policies is different in different periods. Industrial structure change is also the result of the effect of multi-period environmental regulation policies,and the impact of multi-period environmental regulation policies on industrial structure change is inverted U-shaped. 2) Environmental regulation policies usually have immediate regulatory effect on polluting enterprises in the year of promulgation,but the impact is strong and short-lived,which will cause polluting enterprises to make temporary response in the short term. 3) From the third year,the environmental regulation policies have played a continuous and stable role in regulating industrial structure change, making the secondary industrial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions change in the direction of target expected by the policies.

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张国兴,刘薇,保海旭.多重环境规制对区域产业结构变动的时滞效应[J].管理科学学报,2020,23(9):95~107

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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