美联储货币政策对人民币外汇市场压力的冲击
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F113.7

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教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(20YJC790172)


The shocks of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on RMB exchange market pressure
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    摘要:

    美联储货币政策对人民币外汇市场压力的影响会随着不同货币政策模式及不同经济时期的差异性经济环境而变化. 因此,基于国际货币政策溢出效应理论,首先检验了美联储货币政策与人民币外汇市场压力的非线性关系,随后构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型探索了美联储数量型和价格型货币政策对人民币外汇市场压力的非线性冲击效应. 研究发现: 1) 在经济繁荣时期和经济平稳时期,美联储数量型量化宽松货币政策主要会通过资本与金融账户引起人民币外汇市场的升值压力,而美联储价格型量化宽松货币政策主要会通过资本与金融账户引起人民币外汇市场的贬值压力; 2) 在经济萧条时期,美联储数量型量化宽松货币政策主要会通过经常账户引起人民币外汇市场的贬值压力,而美联储价格型量化宽松货币政策主要会通过经常账户引起人民币外汇市场的升值压力. 最后预期美联储将会实施价格型量化宽松货币政策,并建议中国央行同样实施价格型量化宽松货币政策,进而减小人民币外汇市场贬值压力,维持人民币汇率稳定.

    Abstract:

    : The effect of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the RMB foreign exchange market pressure will change with the monetary policy mode and different economic environments in different economic periods. Therefore,based on the theory of spillover effect of international monetary policy,this paper first tests the nonlinear relationship between Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and RMB foreign exchange market pressure, then constructs a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The model is used to study the non-linear impact of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on RMB exchange market pressure from the aspect of quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy. It is found that: First,in the period of economic prosperity and economic stability,the quantitative easing monetary policy of Federal Reserve mainly causes appreciation pressure of RMB exchange market through capital and financial accounts,while the price-based easing monetary policy of Federal Reserve mainly causes depreciation pressure of RMB exchange market through capital and financial accounts. Second,in the period of economic depression,the quantitative easing monetary policy of Federal Reserve mainly causes depreciation pressure of RMB exchange market through the current account,while the price-based easing monetary policy of Federal Reserve mainly causes appreciation pressure of RMB exchange market through the current account. This paper predicts that Federal Reserve will implement the price-based easing monetary policy,and suggests that the Central Bank of China implement the same price-based easing monetary policy,to reduce the depreciation pressure of RMB and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

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殷红,张龙,叶祥松.美联储货币政策对人民币外汇市场压力的冲击[J].管理科学学报,2020,23(11):87~102

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