需求预测信息共享对供应商入侵策略的影响
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C93

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教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(19YJA630095) ; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671133)


The impact of demand forecast sharing on supplier encroachment strategy
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    摘要:

    考虑由一个供应商和一个风险规避的零售商组成的二级供应链. 在零售商拥有私有需求信息和供应商具有开通直销渠道能力情形下,得到了不同策略下供应链成员的最优决策及期望效用,探讨了需求预测精确度及风险规避程度的影响,分析了信息(不) 共享下供应商入侵对供应链成员效用的影响,进一步得到了零售商和供应商之间的均衡策略及其条件. 研究发现: 预测精确度的提升(或零售商风险规避程度的降低) 能够增加供应链成员的效用; 供应商入侵会产生“输 - 赢”、“输 - 输”、“赢 - 输”、“赢 - 赢”四种可能结果; 零售商的最优信息共享策略与基本需求、自身销售优势以及风险规避程度密切相关; 当且仅当基本需求不太高且零售商具有较强的销售成本优势时,零售商才会主动共享信息以诱使供应商开通直销渠道,并且风险规避程度越高,零售商越有可能共享需求信息; 当入侵成本很高时,供应商仍有可能战略性地开通直销渠道.最后,数值分析表明,只有当零售商的销售成本不是太高时,他才有可能共享需求信息.

    Abstract:

    In a two-level supply chain with one supplier who has ability to launch a direct channel and one risk-averse retailer who has private demand forecast information,the optimal decisions and expected utility under four different strategies are derived,and the impact of demand forecast accuracy and risk aversion is explored. The influence of supplier encroachment on channel members’utilities is examined both with and without information sharing. The equilibrium strategies are investigated under different conditions. The results indicate that both the channel members are better off when improving forecast accuracy or reducing risk aversion. Supplier encroachment may lead to four possible outcomes,namely,“lose-win”,“lose-lose”,“win-lose”and“win-win”. The optimal information sharing strategy for the retailer is closely related to the basic demand,his cost advantage and his risk aversion. Only when the basic demand is not too high and the cost advantage is sufficiently pronounced,may the retailer share demand information to induce the supplier to launch a direct channel. The higher the risk aversion is,the more likely the retailer is to share demand information. Even if the intrusion cost is very high,the supplier may launch a direct channel strategically. Finally, numerical studies show that only when the retailer’s sales cost is not too high can he initiate to share information.

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许明辉,孙康泰.需求预测信息共享对供应商入侵策略的影响[J].管理科学学报,2020,23(12):75~90

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-10-25
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