折价出售传染与货币市场基金行业系统性风险——基于“基金-资产”网络视角
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华南理工大学工商管理学院

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F832.5

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科技部科技创新2030-“新一代人工智能”重大项目(2020AAA0108404)


Fire sale contagion and systemic risk in the money market fund industry: A perspective from “fund-asset” bipartite network
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School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology

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    摘要:

    货币市场基金管理人在所持资产价格遭受负向冲击后往往通过折价出售风险资产来预防投资者集中赎回,这种折价出售行为可能会引起货币基金行业发生风险传染,从而导致系统性风险.本文基于“基金-资产”二分网络,构建了货币基金的资产折价出售风险传染模型,在统一框架下度量了货币基金行业总溢出损失、基金个体的系统脆弱性和系统重要性,刻画了基金特征、变现策略和风险资产价格对货币基金系统性风险的重要影响作用.使用我国债券市场和货币基金数据进行实证分析,结果表明:货币基金与债券市场的联动性是系统性风险生成的核心要素,忽略货币基金间资产折价出售的传染效应会严重低估货币基金行业系统性风险;资产组合相似度越高,货币基金的系统脆弱性和重要性越高;货币基金的规模亦与其系统重要性显著正相关;不同变现策略造成的风险资产传染冲击是形成基金系统性风险差异的重要因素.研究结果为金融监管部门采取适当干预措施阻断货币基金间风险传染提供决策依据,对于完善我国重要货币基金评估体系与监管框架具有重要意义.

    Abstract:

    In response to adverse shocks, managers of money market funds (MMF) typically resort to fire sales to prevent concentrated redemption. However, such behavior may trigger risk contagion among MMFs, potentially leading to a systemic crisis. This paper proposes a fire-sale risk contagion model based on the “fund-asset” bipartite network, and then measures the total spillover loss, systemic vulnerability and systemic importance of MMFs under a unified framework. Meanwhile, we examine the effects of fund characteristics, fund liquidation strategies and risky asset prices on systemic risk. Using the bond market transaction data and Chinese MMFs’ financial data, our findings reveal that the interconnectedness between MMFs and the bond market serves as the core driver of systemic risk generation. Ignoring the spillover effect caused by fire sales significantly underestimates the systemic risk. Higher similarity in asset portfolios leads to increased systemic vulnerability and systemic importance of the MMF. Fund size significantly contributes to the systemic importance of the MMF. The price levels of risky assets dictated by different liquidation rules account for the disparities in systemic risk exposure among MMFs. These results provide crucial insights for financial regulatory authorities to implement appropriate interventions against risk contagion among MMFs, and enhance the evaluation and supervision framework for systemically important MMFs.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-09-16
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-18
  • 录用日期:2023-11-27
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