Abstract:The real estate market is currently one of the biggest "gray rhino" in China. This paper is the first time to stress test the systemic impact of the real estate industry shock on all industries in China. To overcome the inability of two-dimensional stress test to describe the co-movement of all the industries, we propose a new dynamic high-dimensional copula (DHDC) macro stress testing method. We also propose a new systemic risk measure, conditional market value loss (CoMVL), which adds market value information on top of the advantages of existing risk measures like CoES and MES and hence better reflects the impact of real estate industry shock. Using the index return data of 18 industries in China, the empirical analyses based on the DHDC stress testing show that: the shock of the real estate industry has a wide range of adverse effects on other industries. When the cumulative rate of return of the real estate industry falls by 20% in the next month, the market value of the manufacturing industry, financial industry, information technology industry and mining industry will fall 10.14trillion, 0.81 trillion, 0.65 trillion and 0.42 trillion, and the yield will decrease by 29.10%, 7.81%, 15.27%, and 10.92%, respectively; more than 75% of the market value loss caused by the negative shock of real estate industry is attributed to the indirect channel, that is, the real estate industry affects target industry through other industries. The risk spillover network analysis shows that the real estate industry affects the manufacturing industry and the financial industry mainly through the information technology industry, mining industry, wholesale and retail industry, transportation and warehousing industry, water and gas industry, and construction industry. The extension analysis also shows that the longer the shock of the real estate industry, the greater the adverse impact on other industries; In addition, the effect of the real estate industry’s negative shock is greater than the positive shock of the same magnitude, that means stabilizing the expectation of real estate decline is relatively more important to prevent systemic risks. A series of robustness tests confirm the reliability of the above results.This paper has important policy implications for comprehensively understanding and preventing the potential risks from the real estate industry to other industries.