房地产行业冲击下的系统性风险研究
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1.山东大学商学院;2.西南财经大学中国金融研究院;3.复旦大学经济学院

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国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“中国家庭债务风险的生成机理、风险评估与防范机制研究”(72003155)和面上项目“金融风险度量的后验分析与建模”(72173029)的资助。


Systemic Risk Analyses under the Shock of Real Estate Industry
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1.School of Business, Shandong University;2.Insititute of Chinese Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;3.School of Economics, Fudan University

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    摘要:

    房地产是当前中国最大的“灰犀牛”之一。本文首次就房地产行业冲击对我国所有行业可能造成的系统性风险影响进行了压力测试。为克服以往二维压力测试无法刻画所有行业之间联动的问题,我们提出了一种新的动态高维Copula(DHDC)宏观压力测试方法。我们还提出了一种新的系统性风险度量—条件市值损失(CoMVL),它结合了已有风险度量CoES和MES的优点,又融入了市值信息,从而更好地测量负向冲击的影响。利用中国18个行业的指数回报数据,基于DHDC压力测试的实证分析表明:房地产行业冲击对其他各个行业产生了广泛的不利影响,如果未来一个月内房地产行业累积收益率下跌20%,将会导致制造业、金融业、信息技术业和采矿业的市值分别下跌10.14、0.81、0.65和0.42万亿元,收益率分别下跌29.10%、7.81%、15.27%和10.92%;房地产行业冲击对一个行业造成的市值损失75%以上归结于间接影响,即房地产行业通过影响其它行业而其它行业又对目标行业造成的影响。风险溢出网络分析表明,房地产行业冲击主要通过信息技术业、采矿业、批发零售业、交运仓储业、水电煤气业和建筑业六个行业对制造业和金融业产生了不利影响。拓展分析还表明,房地产行业冲击时间越长,对其他行业产生的不利影响也就越大;而且房地产行业负向冲击产生的影响要大于同等幅度下正向冲击产生的影响,即当前稳定房地产下跌预期对防范系统性风险相对更加重要。一系列稳健性检验都证实了本文结果的可靠性。本研究对于全面理解和防范房地产行业冲击对其它各行业可能带来的系统性风险具有重要的政策指引意义。

    Abstract:

    The real estate market is currently one of the biggest "gray rhino" in China. This paper is the first time to stress test the systemic impact of the real estate industry shock on all industries in China. To overcome the inability of two-dimensional stress test to describe the co-movement of all the industries, we propose a new dynamic high-dimensional copula (DHDC) macro stress testing method. We also propose a new systemic risk measure, conditional market value loss (CoMVL), which adds market value information on top of the advantages of existing risk measures like CoES and MES and hence better reflects the impact of real estate industry shock. Using the index return data of 18 industries in China, the empirical analyses based on the DHDC stress testing show that: the shock of the real estate industry has a wide range of adverse effects on other industries. When the cumulative rate of return of the real estate industry falls by 20% in the next month, the market value of the manufacturing industry, financial industry, information technology industry and mining industry will fall 10.14trillion, 0.81 trillion, 0.65 trillion and 0.42 trillion, and the yield will decrease by 29.10%, 7.81%, 15.27%, and 10.92%, respectively; more than 75% of the market value loss caused by the negative shock of real estate industry is attributed to the indirect channel, that is, the real estate industry affects target industry through other industries. The risk spillover network analysis shows that the real estate industry affects the manufacturing industry and the financial industry mainly through the information technology industry, mining industry, wholesale and retail industry, transportation and warehousing industry, water and gas industry, and construction industry. The extension analysis also shows that the longer the shock of the real estate industry, the greater the adverse impact on other industries; In addition, the effect of the real estate industry’s negative shock is greater than the positive shock of the same magnitude, that means stabilizing the expectation of real estate decline is relatively more important to prevent systemic risks. A series of robustness tests confirm the reliability of the above results.This paper has important policy implications for comprehensively understanding and preventing the potential risks from the real estate industry to other industries.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-22
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-27
  • 录用日期:2023-05-29
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