政策宣告的资本市场反馈:基于碳中和概念股
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The influence of marco policy release on the capital market: Evidence from the “Carbon Neutrality” concept stocks
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    摘要:

    双碳目标的实现已成为政府工作与企业改革发展的主要目标之一.本研究基于同花顺碳中和概念板块的数据,研究了资本市场对这一目标的反馈,并基于各类订单交易和社会层面关注数据,实证解释了政策效应可能的来源.研究表明,相较于具有类似特征的对照组股票,碳中和概念股在双碳目标宣布后具有显著正向的收益表现,且这一反馈具有提前性;对碳中和概念股回报的正向反馈主要来自于市场中规模最大的超大单交易,影响在政策宣告后、概念股推出前便已显著存在,而中单和小单交易未能起到支持作用;社会层面的关注强化了资本市场对概念股的正向反馈,增加超大单交易带来的显著正向的影响,加快积极信息吸收速度.综上,本研究反映了资本市场对国家宏观政策和热点话题的积极反馈,并揭示了超大订单交易的重要作用,对于鼓励企业进一步开拓和扩展双碳相关举措,以实现资本市场和实体经济发展的相互促进具有重要意义.

    Abstract:

    The realization of carbon peaking and “Carbon Neutrality” has become one of the main goals of government and enterprise reform. Based on data from the “Carbon Neutrality” concept plate from iFinD, this paper empirically analyzes the supporting role of the capital market on the macro policy release, studies the feedback of the capital market on this policy goal, and gives an empirical explanation of the policy effect based on various order trading data and social attention data. The findings show that, compared with the control group of stocks with similar characteristics, “Carbon Neutrality” concept stocks have significantly positive return performances after the announcement of the dual carbon goal, and this positive feedback occurs in advance. Further, trading data form different kinds of orders play heterogeneous roles in the policy effect. The positive return feedback of “Carbon Neutrality” concept stocks mainly comes from the superlarge trades, which appears after the policy is announced and before the concept stocks are launched. In contrast, medium and small trades fail to play a supporting role, revealing the essential role of institutional investors. Additionally, sociallevel attention also plays a vital role in the feedback on the dual carbon policy. Baidu searchindex data can significantly improve the return of “Carbon Neutrality” concept stocks, strengthen the significant positive impact of superlarge trades, and speed up information absorption. To sum up, this paper reports the positive feedback of the capital market on the national macro policies and reveals the essential role of superlarge orders in the market. The findings are important to encourage enterprises to develop and expand doublecarbonrelated initiatives and ultimately achieve the joint promotion of the capital market and the real economy.

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高雅.政策宣告的资本市场反馈:基于碳中和概念股[J].管理科学学报,2024,(11):63~77

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-20
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