诺贝尔经济科学奖与决策理论及其对数据驱动智能决策的研究启示
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Nobel Memorial Prize in economic sciences & decision theory and its implications for data-driven intelligent decision-making
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    摘要:

    决策理论是诺贝尔经济科学奖辈出的一个研究领域,人工智能与数据科学对决策的影响与日俱增,决策研究正面临新的挑战和契机.现有人工智能或数据驱动的决策研究范式往往从全局视角讨论范式的转换和新的研究契机及重大研究问题,提出了很多真知灼见.但是,缺乏从人工智能、数据科学与决策理论交叉的视角,对决策理论研究领域进行反思和展望.为此,笔者聚焦决策理论研究领域,首先介绍诺贝尔经济科学奖获得者在决策理论领域的重要贡献,以此为中心梳理和归纳出主要的决策理论(效用理论、社会选择理论、行为决策理论)及发展脉络.在此基础上,从“效用学习”、“偏好演化”和“智能决策可解释性”的视角,探讨在人工智能与数据的驱动下,决策理论中存在的研究契机和重要问题及研究范式转型,以期为推进新技术情景下的决策理论研究提供有益思考.

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    Decision theory is the foundational theory in economics and management for studying human judgment and decision-making behaviors. Some researchers have won the Nobel Memorial Prize in economic sciences for their outstanding contributions to the field of decision theory. Currently, with the growing influence of artificial intelligence and data science on decision-making, both the theoretical and applied research in decision theory are facing new challenges and opportunities. This paper analyzes the contributions of the Nobel Laureates in economic sciences in decision theory and shows their main research topics, which focus on utility theory, social choice theory, and behavioral decision theory. Motivated by these classical theories, our analysis focuses on the transformation of research paradigms in the specific area of decision theory from the perspective of the intersection among artificial intelligence, data science, and classical decision theory. A data-driven intelligent decision-making research paradigm is developed from the perspectives of “utility learning”, “preference evolution”, and “intelligent decision interpretability”. Its differences from the classical decision theory research paradigm are highlighted. Moreover, the applications of data-driven intelligent decision-making in economics and management are discussed.

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董玉成,范莎,陈霞,寇纲.诺贝尔经济科学奖与决策理论及其对数据驱动智能决策的研究启示[J].管理科学学报,2025,(4):174~190

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-08
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