协同碳减排与非化石能源发展目标的政策效应:征税与补贴
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Policy effect evaluation of coordinated carbon reduction and non-fossil energy development goals: Tax and subsidy
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    摘要:

    从解决两类“外部性”问题出发,本研究构建一般均衡分析框架,考察碳税和非化石能源补贴双向驱动下,碳排放控制与非化石能源发展目标协同实现路径,及其对经济发展和能源结构等的影响.研究发现:第一,对不同部门征收差异化碳税相较于对所有部门征收统一碳税,具有较低的单位减排成本.第二,碳税主要对传统化石能源部门的产出和消费产生直接抑制作用,能够显著抑制能源密集型行业的产出增长,对产业结构的改善作用显著;而非化石能源补贴则对促进非化石能源的生产和消费更为有效.第三,对碳排放源征收统一税率碳税和差异化碳税,均能实现2030年碳达峰目标;而要兼顾碳排放强度和非化石能源占比目标,则需要将碳税收入用于非化石能源补贴.第四,碳税会给GDP带来损失,非化石能源补贴则会提升GDP,将碳税收入用于非化石能源补贴能够抵消单一碳税政策对经济的负面影响,甚或产生显著的正向效应.中国未来应针对现有碳市场之外的碳源实施差异化碳税,并可将碳税收入用于非化石能源补贴,约束与激励并举,充分发挥政策组合优势,协同实现碳排放控制和非化石能源发展目标.

    Abstract:

    Starting from addressing two types of externality problems, this paper establishes a general equilibrium analysis framework to examine the coordinated realization of carbon reduction and non-fossil energy development goals under the two policies of carbon tax and non-fossil energy subsidy. Additionally, it comprehensively evaluates the impacts of these two policies on economic development and energy structure. The results show that: First, levying differentiated carbon tax rates on various sectors results in a lower unit emission reduction cost compared to levying a uniform carbon tax rate all sectors. Second, the carbon tax mainly exerts a direct inhibitory effect on the output and consumption of traditional fossil energy sectors. This can significantly inhibit the growth of energy-intensive industries, thereby having a significant effect on the optimization of industrial structure. In contrast, non-fossil energy subsidy is more effective in promoting the production and consumption of non-fossil energy sources. Third, both a uniform carbon tax rate and differentiated carbon tax rates on carbon emission sources can achieve the goal of carbon peak by 2030. However, to simultaneously achieve the goals of reducing carbon intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil energy, carbon tax revenues should be further used to subsidize non-fossil energy consumptions. Fourth, a carbon tax is likely to bring losses to GDP, whereas non-fossil energy subsidy can increase GDP. Using carbon tax revenues to further subsidize non-fossil energy consumptions can offset the negative impact of a single carbon tax policy on the economy, and may even generates a significant positive effect. In the future, China should levy differentiated carbon tax rates on carbon sources not covered by the existing carbon market, and allocate the carbon tax revenues to subsidize non-fossil energy consumption. By adopting this combination of constraints and incentives, China can fully leverage the advantages of policy integration to achieve both carbon reduction and non-fossil energy development goals.

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宋鹏,黄婉婷,毛显强,黎梓言.协同碳减排与非化石能源发展目标的政策效应:征税与补贴[J].管理科学学报,2025,(5):174~190

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-22
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