生活成本、住房支出与广义通胀指标构建
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:


Cost of living, housing expenditure, and the construction of a broad inflation indicator
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    自2000年以来,我国住房价格变化幅度多数时期高于其他消费品,但消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀率似乎并未准确反映购房消费对生活成本的影响.将住房价格排除在CPI之外,可能导致通胀指标失真,影响政策精准性.本研究提出度量“购房成本法”,将自有住房消费支出视为居民通过购房方式获取居住服务的机会成本.本研究构建了一个世代交叠模型,将不同自有住房消费支出度量方法纳入统一理论框架,运用购房成本法重新计算我国城镇居民自有住房消费支出和价格,并据此调整城镇CPI.研究发现:购房成本法在纳入住房价格信息的同时具备良好统计性质,优于现有等值租金法,尤其在房价快涨而租金平稳的情境下更能准确反映生活成本.结果显示,2015年—2021年间,购房成本法下自有住房消费支出在城镇居民消费篮子中权重为16.1%,高出现有口径7%;城镇自有住房消费价格年化通胀率为6.7%(高5.4%);城镇CPI年化通胀率为2.7%(高0.7%).

    Abstract:

    Since 2000, housing prices in China have generally risen faster than other consumer goods, yet the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate does not appear to fully capture the impact of home purchases on living costs. Excluding housing prices from the CPI may distort the inflation indicator and undermine the precision of macroeconomic policy. This paper proposes a “home purchase cost approach”, which interprets owner-occupied housing expenditure as the opportunity cost of acquiring housing services through homeownership. An overlapping generations (OLG) model that incorporates various methods of measuring owner-occupied housing consumption into a unified theoretical framework is developed. Using this approach, we recalculate the owner-occupied housing expenditure and price for urban households in China and adjust the urban CPI accordingly. The findings show that the home purchase cost approach effectively incorporates housing price information while exhibiting favorable statistical properties, outperforming the current equivalent rent method. It more accurately reflects living costs, particularly when housing prices rise rapidly while rents remain stable. Between 2015 and 2021, this approach implies that owner-occupied housing expenditures accounted for 16.1% of the urban consumption basket, 7 percentage points higher than the existing method; the annual inflation rate of owner-occupied housing prices was 6.7%(5.4 percentage points higher); and the urban CPI annual inflation rate was 2.7%(0.7 percentage points higher).

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

张成思,田涵晖.生活成本、住房支出与广义通胀指标构建[J].管理科学学报,2025,(8):17~31

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-23
  • 出版日期:
您是第位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2025 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn