“双循环”背景下产业中心性与益贫式增长
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Industrial centrality and pro-poor growth under “Dual Circulation”
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    摘要:

    本研究通过将IRIOT嵌入WIOT,构建了“国内国际双循环”背景下“省级-产业”维度的投入产出矩阵,设计了溢出效应和追赶效应的产业间经济关联网络.基于复杂网络理论测度了2001年—2013年中国30个省份14个制造业的产业中心性水平,利用人均产出增速的相对指数衡量制造业的增长益贫性,深入探究产业中心性对中国省级制造业益贫式增长的影响,并进一步区分了溢出效应和追赶效应的不同作用机理.结果表明:1)国际产业中心性的提高不利于制造业益贫式增长,溢出效应进一步放大了这种负面影响;2)国内产业中心性对制造业益贫式增长有显著促进作用,但主要是基于追赶效应而非溢出效应的影响;3)国际和国内产业中心性对制造业益贫式增长作用的区域特征表现为:西部最强、中部次之、东部最弱;产业特征表现为:技术密集型最大、劳动密集型次之、资本密集型最小.本研究对推进中国制造业益贫式增长有重要的现实意义和参考价值.

    Abstract:

    This article constructs an input-output matrix of the “provincial-industry” dimension within the context of “Dual Circulation” by embedding IRIOT into WIOT, and designs an inter-industry economic correlation network with spillover and catch-up effects. Based on the theory of complex networks, the level of industrial centrality in 14 manufacturing industries in 30 provinces of China from 2001 to 2013 is measured. The relative index of per capita output growth rate is used to measure the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry. The impact of industrial centrality on pro-poor growth is thoroughly explored, and the different mechanisms of spillover effects and catch-up effects are further distinguished. The results indicate that: 1)The improvement of international industrial centrality is not conducive to the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry, and the spillover effect further amplifies this negative impact. 2)The centrality of domestic industries has a significant promoting effect on the pro-poor growth of manufacturing, but it is mainly based on catch-up effects rather than spillover effects. 3)The regional characteristics of the impact of international and domestic industrial centrality on the pro-poor growth of the manufacturing industry are as follows: The strongest in the western region, followed by the central region, and the weakest in the eastern region. The industrial characteristics are as follows: Technology-intensive industries have the largest impact, followed by labor-intensive, and capital-intensive industries have the smallest impact. This study has important practical significance and reference value for promoting pro-poor growth in China’s manufacturing industry.

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刘梦,黎峰,陈庭强,王冀宁.“双循环”背景下产业中心性与益贫式增长[J].管理科学学报,2025,(8):49~70

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-23
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