重大工程绿色管理主体行为的随机演化博弈
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The stochastic evolutionary game of stakeholders’ behavior in green management of megaprojects
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    摘要:

    重大工程绿色管理能够降低工程建设对区域生态环境的影响.然而,鉴于工程建设周期长且其对周边环境的潜在影响程度难以准确预测,承包商、业主与环保部门作为工程建设阶段绿色管理的关键主体,在制定绿色管理决策时易受到不确定因素的影响.本研究将随机过程嵌入演化博弈理论,重构了承包商、业主与环保部门间的随机演化博弈模型,探索了各博弈主体参与绿色管理的策略选择过程,分析了不同因素对其策略选择的影响效果.研究发现:承包商选择绿色建造、业主采取服务型策略、环保部门实施随机抽查,共同构成了实现重大工程绿色管理的稳定策略集.增强各主体参与绿色管理的初始合作意愿能有效降低其决策的波动性,降低环保总成本并合理设定业主分摊的环保成本比例将促进各主体更快达到绿色管理的稳定状态.此外,提升承包商的社会声誉可推动其采纳绿色建造策略,而承包商对业主的积极评价将有助于培育服务型业主;承包商与业主的绿色管理决策对随机扰动更为敏感.本研究所构建的随机演化博弈模型在一定程度上扩展了传统的绿色管理研究方法,而阐释的服务型业主理念能够为重大工程实践中的绿色管理长效机制构建提供决策参考.

    Abstract:

    The green management of megaprojects can mitigate the impact of construction activities on the regional ecological environment. However, given the long construction timelines and the difficulty in accurately predicting potential environmental damage, key stakeholders (i.e., contractors, owners, and environmental agencies) involved in the green management of the construction phase are susceptible to uncertainties when making green management decisions. This study integrates stochastic processes into evolutionary game theory, reconstructing a stochastic evolutionary game model among contractors, owners, and environmental agencies, exploring the strategic decision-making processes of these stakeholders in green management and analyzing the effects of various factors on their strategic choices. The findings reveal that if contractors adopt green construction, owners pursue service-oriented strategies, and environmental agencies conduct random inspections, a stable strategy set for green management would be achieved in megaprojects. Especially, strengthening the initial willingness of all players to cooperate in green management would effectively reduce decision-making volatility. Additionally, lower total environmental protection costs and a more reasonably proportion of these costs borne by owners could accelerate the achievement of a stable state in green management. Enhancing the social reputation of contractors could incentivize them to adopt green construction strategies, while positive feedback from contractors to owners could foster the development of service-oriented ownership. Moreover, the green management decisions of contractors and owners are particularly sensitive to random disturbances. The stochastic evolutionary game model proposed in this study extends traditional approaches to green management, and the vision of service-oriented ownership provides valuable insights into establishing long-term green management mechanisms in the practices of megaprojects.

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高鑫,曾若辰,宋瑞震,孟晓华.重大工程绿色管理主体行为的随机演化博弈[J].管理科学学报,2025,(8):71~86

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-23
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