进口冲击与企业跨国供应链转移——基于日本大地震的准自然实验
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Import shocks and transnational supply chains transfer: Evidence from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a quasi natural experiment
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    摘要:

    重大外部冲击下企业供应链调整行为的复杂性和异质性特征,需要在理论分析基础上通过微观实证加以识别.本研究以2011年日本大地震作为准自然实验,基于2007年—2014年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库的匹配数据,实证考察了这一重大进口冲击引发的中国企业跨国供应链转移行为.研究发现:地震引发供应链断裂后,国内中间品进口商更倾向与其他国家或地区的企业建立多元化供应链关系.异质性检验发现供应链重构存在显著分化:这一现象在外资企业、加工贸易企业、龙头企业、地震前仅从日本进口中间品的企业以及对日本中间品依赖程度较高的行业更为显著.拓展性研究发现,企业跨国供应链多元化并非全球分散布局,而是呈现出就近化和区域化特征;供应链重构能力受到内外部信息环境的影响:企业自身贸易网络、周边贸易企业信息渠道以及外部贸易中介越发达,企业越能有效利用信息溢出效应快速识别替代供应商,实现高效重构.本研究丰富了重大冲击下企业供应链调整的微观证据,为企业防范化解外部风险冲击、维护供应链安全与稳定提供了经验参考.

    Abstract:

    The complexity and heterogeneity of firm supply chain adjustment in response to major external shocks require identification through micro-empirical analysis grounded in theoretical frameworks. Using the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines how Chinese firms responded to this major import shocks by transferring their supply chainsacross borders, based on merged data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and the Chinese Customs Import and Export Database from 2007 to 2014.The findings reveal that after the earthquake disrupted supply chains, domestic intermediate goods importers are more inclined to establish diversified supply chain relationships with firms in other countries or regions. Heterogeneity tests indicate this tendency are more pronounced among foreign-owned enterprises, processing trade firms, industry leaders, imported intermediates only from Japan before earthquake as well as firms that are highly reliant on inputs imports from Japan.Further analysis shows that firms’ transnational supply chain diversification does not imply global dispersion but rather exhibits characteristics of regionalization and proximity. The capacity for supply chain restructuring is influenced by both internal and external information environments: Firms with more developed internal trade networks, access to information channels through neighboring trading firms, and support from trade intermediaries are better able to leverage information spillovers to quickly identify alternative suppliers and achieve efficient restructuring.This study enriches the micro-level evidence on corporate supply chain adjustments under major shocks and provides empirical insights for firms seeking to mitigate external risks and enhance supply chain security and stability.

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邓玉萍,王海成,邵小快.进口冲击与企业跨国供应链转移——基于日本大地震的准自然实验[J].管理科学学报,2025,(8):129~143

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-23
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