中国高校毕业生空间流动的量化分析——来自简历大数据的证据
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A quantitative analysis of the flow of college graduates in China: Evidence from resume big data
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    摘要:

    我国人才的空间分布不均,同时“人才争夺战”不断加剧,各地相继出台吸引人才落户的优惠政策,这对探索中国人才流动规律和协调地区经济发展提出了新的挑战.本研究聚焦于我国高校毕业生,构建了一个多地区动态均衡的人才迁移模型来描述其择业决策,并量化分析学历水平、学校层次以及专业学科等个体特征与实际收入、迁移摩擦、宜居度等宏观因素对毕业生就业地点选择的影响.结合职业社交平台简历信息这一独特微观数据,本文实证研究发现:1)距离对毕业生跨省择业的阻碍作用随着学历水平和学校办学层次的上升而下降;2)理科专业毕业生相对于工科和文科面临的跨地区迁移摩擦更小;3)各地迁入壁垒从西北往东南方向逐渐增加.反事实分析进一步显示:1)单一地区的永久性工资上升将提高所有地区毕业生的福利;2)若要吸引与东部发达地区相同幅度的人才流入,西部地区需要给予更高的工资补偿.

    Abstract:

    Talent distribution within China exhibits significant regional disparities. Local governments have implemented favorable policies to gain an edge in the increasingly heated competition for talent. These pose new challenges for exploring the law of talent flows and promoting balanced regional economic development. This study focuses on college graduates in China and builds a dynamic multi-region model of migration to quantitatively analyze the impact of different individual characteristics (such as academic degree, school rank, and major) and economic factors (including real wage, migration cost, and amenity) on their job location decisions. Using data from a leading professional social network, we find that migration frictions fall with higher academic degrees and school rankings. Graduates with science degrees encounter lower migration frictions than those with engineering or arts and social science degrees. Estimated barriers to talent inflows gradually increase from the northwest to the southeast. Counterfactual analyses imply that a permanent wage increase in any province improves the welfare of graduates across all provinces. Western provinces need to offer higher wages than coastal provinces to attract an equivalent talent flow.

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葛淳棉,陈倚倩,陈骁,黄汉伟.中国高校毕业生空间流动的量化分析——来自简历大数据的证据[J].管理科学学报,2025,(9):65~83

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-03
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