在线新闻与股价波动:投资者情绪的调节效应
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作者单位:

1.南京大学;2.南京理工大学

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Online News and Stock Price Volatility: The Moderating Role of Investor Sentiment
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Affiliation:

1.Nanjing University;2.Nanjing University of Science and Technology

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    数字经济的快速发展对投资者交易行为和股票价格波动产生了深刻影响。本文基于东方财富股吧发帖数据构建投资者情绪指标,结合新闻数据分析投资者情绪如何影响个股对新闻事件的价格反应。研究发现,无论新闻本身利好或利空,投资者情绪才是股价短期波动的主导因素——投资者情绪乐观时股价表现为过度反应(先涨后跌),投资者情绪偏悲观时股价多伴随负向漂移。投资组合分析结果验证了情绪驱动的错误定价:“悲观情绪&正面新闻”组合相对于“乐观情绪&负面新闻”组合的年化超额收益为6.8%(扣除融券成本)。研究还发现,订单不平衡是投资者情绪影响新闻发布后股价反应模式的重要传导渠道,且其对投资者情绪的响应程度远高于对新闻语调的敏感性。在超过47%(保守估计)的情形下,订单不平衡的变动方向由投资者情绪决定,而新闻语调仅影响其变动幅度。本研究突破传统“新闻内容决定价格”的范式,提出了“情绪状态依赖的信息定价理论”,为理解数字经济时代散户主导市场的非有效定价提供了新证据。

    Abstract:

    The rapid development of the digital economy has profoundly influenced investor trading behavior and stock price volatility. This study constructs an investor sentiment index based on stock forum posts from Eastmoney Guba and examines how investor sentiment moderates the price responses of individual stocks to news events. Empirical results show that stock price movements following news releases exhibit sentiment-dependent patterns: under optimistic sentiment, stock prices tend to overreact (rise first and fall later), while under pessimistic sentiment, prices tend to drift downward. Portfolio analysis confirms the existence of sentiment-driven mispricing: the annualized excess return of the “pessimistic sentiment & positive news” portfolio over the “optimistic sentiment & negative news” portfolio reaches 6.8% after deducting short-selling costs. Furthermore, order imbalance is identified as a key transmission channel through which investor sentiment affects post-news price responses. The sensitivity of order imbalance to investor sentiment is significantly greater than to news tone. In over 47% of the cases (conservatively estimated), the direction of order imbalance is driven by sentiment, while news tone only affects its magnitude. These findings are robust across various specifications and provide new empirical evidence on sentiment-driven market behavior in China, offering important insights into asset pricing mechanisms in the digital economy era.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-07-04
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-19
  • 录用日期:2026-06-02
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