多维耦合风险的动态演化机理与防控增韧策略研究
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1.南京信息工程大学管理工程学院;2.南京工业大学经济与管理学院

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C931

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国家社会科学基金重点项目(深入推进中国式现代化面临的复杂环境和风险挑战研究,24AZD061)


Research on dynamic evolution mechanisms of multi-dimensional coupled risks and resilience enhancement strategies for risk prevention and control
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1.School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology;3.School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Technology

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    摘要:

    灾害风险日益呈现出多维耦合与动态演化的复杂特征。为深入揭示其扩散演化机理并系统提升城市风险防控能力与安全韧性,创新性构建一套事件驱动的多维耦合风险动态演化分析与防控框架。采用事理图谱方法梳理自然、社会、基础设施、经济等多维度风险因素间错综交织的复杂关联,运用N-K模型量化风险因素间的耦合强度,并在综合考量耦合效应与防控措施效能的基础上,提出一种改进的SIR风险演化模型以刻画多维耦合风险的动态演化过程,最后选择内涝风险为例开展仿真模拟。分析发现:1) 风险耦合效应会显著加快灾害早期风险扩散速度、扩大影响范围。干预时机对风险扩散规模起决定性作用,干预越早,越易控制风险;即便干预有所延迟但若采取高强度防控措施,也能使风险节点快速集中受控。2) 对关键节点实施靶向干预可一定程度上控制风险扩散范围,而分级差异化组合干预策略更能加速风险消散。此类策略均对风险防控的边际效益存在阈值,超过阈值后,继续提升干预强度会导致效益递减。研究为理解复杂灾害风险间多维耦合的动态演化机制以及制定精准化的城市安全防控增韧策略提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Disaster risks are increasingly exhibiting complex characteristics of multi-dimensional coupling and dynamic evolution. To better understand the dynamic evolution mechanisms of disaster risks and systematically improve urban risk prevention and control capabilities as well as safety resilience, this study innovatively constructs an event-driven analytical framework for dynamic evolution patterns and mitigation strategies of multidimensional coupled risks. The event logic graph method is first employed to extract the intricately complex associations among multi-dimensional risk factors, including natural, social, infrastructural, and economic aspects. And the N-K model is applied to quantify the intensity of the coupling effects among risk factors. Furthermore, the comprehensive impacts of risk coupling effects and intervention measures are explicitly incorporated into the traditional SIR risk evolution model to creatively depict the dynamic evolution process of multi-dimensional coupled risks. Finally, a simulation analysis is conducted taking urban waterlogging risk as an example. The results demonstrate that: 1) The coupling effect of risks significantly accelerates the speed of risk propagation and expands the scope of its impact during the early stages of disaster evolution. The timing of intervention plays a decisive role in the scale of risk propagation. Earlier interventions lead to more effective risk control. However, in cases of delayed action, implementing high-intensity intervention measures can still rapidly and intensively control risks. 2) Targeted interventions at critical risk factors can curb the propagation of risks to some extent, whereas a hierarchical and differentiated intervention strategy can achieve even more effective risk mitigation. However, such interventive strategies show a threshold effect in terms of their marginal benefits for risk prevention and control. Beyond this threshold, further increases in intervention intensity result in diminishing marginal returns. This study provides some managerial insights for understanding multi-dimensional coupled dynamic evolution mechanisms of complex disaster risks and developing effective measures to enhance urban resilience in risk prevention and control.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-27
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-29
  • 录用日期:2026-04-04
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