“不安分”的经济变量:气候变化与企业投资波动
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湖南大学

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An “Unruly” Economic Variable: Climate Change and Corporate Investment Volatility
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Hunan University

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    摘要:

    气候风险已然成为一个“不安分”的经济变量,对经济平稳运行构成了严重威胁。本文考察了气候风险对企业投资波动的影响及适应性策略。结果显示,气候风险会显著加剧企业投资波动,且对气候敏感性较高的行业、非国有企业和高成长性企业的冲击更为严重。机制检验表明,气候风险会增加企业未来收益的不可预期性,降低投资-投资机会敏感性,且会导致企业现金流不确定性和外部融资约束上升,从而无法维持投资稳定。进一步,气候适应型城市建设和保险的减震器效应能够缓解气候风险的不利冲击,企业也能通过增强组织韧性和财务柔性及加快数字化转型等,提升其应对气候风险的能力。本文从企业投资波动视角揭示了气候风险威胁经济稳定的微观传导机制,对提升气候适应性能力及保障经济平稳运行具有重要启示意义。

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    With the intensification of climate change, climate risk has emerged as a disruptive economic variable, posing a significant threat to the stable operation of China's economy. This study systematically examines the impact of climate risk on corporate investment volatility, explores its underlying mechanisms, and discusses potential adaptive strategies. The findings reveal that climate risk exacerbates corporate investment volatility, with private enterprises and high-growth firms being particularly vulnerable to its effects. Mechanism testing indicates that climate risk increases the unpredictability of future corporate earnings, reducing investment sensitivity to opportunities, and heightens cash flow uncertainty, making it more difficult for firms to secure external financing, thereby destabilizing investment activities. Further analysis shows that climate-adaptive urban development can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate risk on local firms; insurance can act as an economic shock absorber and a stabilizing force, helping to alleviate and offset the effects of climate risk; and firms can enhance their resilience to climate risks by strengthening organizational resilience, improving financial flexibility, and accelerating digital transformation. From the perspective of corporate investment volatility, this study reveals the micro-level transmission mechanisms through which climate risk threatens economic stability. The findings provide valuable theoretical insights and policy recommendations for improving corporate climate adaptability, establishing effective mechanisms to mitigate climate-related financial risks, and ensuring the stable operation of the economy.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-29
  • 录用日期:2026-05-05
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