基于斯坦规则和误差校正的组合预测模型
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:


Combination forecasting based on Stein-rule estimation and error correction
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    研究了基于斯坦规则估计和误差校正机制的组合预测方法和模型设定 .应用表明 ,利用斯坦规则结合非样本信息可以改善组合预测性能 ,采用误差校正形式的组合预测模型较之其它形式的组合预测模型具有更高的外推预测精度 ,建议的误差校正形式具有更高的精度和更广的适用性

    Abstract:

    Combination forecasting pioneered by Granger is an efficient way to diversify forecasting risk and thus to deal with model uncertainty. However, the empirical evidences have shown that the simple combining forecasts usually outperform the complex models due to the uncertainty and instability of the relationship between single forecasts. In this paper, the combination forecasting methods and model specification based on Stein rule shrinkage estimation and error correction mechanism are studied. The empirical results show that the perform ance of combining forecasts can be improved by adopting Stein rule estimators to combine non—sample information and sample information.Furthermore,the error correction models of combining forecasts are more accurate than other model forms. The error correction models proposed in this paper are more efficiency than previous models in"utilizing the co—integration relationship between non—stationary series and their forecasts,and therefore even better and more applicable.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

曾勇; 唐小我; 郑维敏;.基于斯坦规则和误差校正的组合预测模型[J].管理科学学报,2001,4(6):

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
您是第位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2024 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn