动态经济系统分析的经济计量模型与方法
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Econometric model and method for analysis of dynamic economic system
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    摘要:

    综述可有效阐明动态经济系统长期关系和因果关系的因果测度理论. 首先简要介绍多变 量时间序列的协整过程及与此相关的若干概念,并总结了在经济计量学领域评价较高的多变 量自回归模型的统计识别方法. 基于多变量时间序列协整过程的向量自回归模型,较详细讨论 了多变量时间序列间各种因果测度的定义及其沃尔德检验. 所述单方向因果测度及其统计检 验理论作为C1W. J . Granger 非因果性理论的扩张,不仅可以检验两组时间序列间的因果影响 存在与否,还可以定量描述影响的程度. 单方向因果测度理论为分析复杂经济系统提

    Abstract:

    :In this paper we mainly discuss the one-way effect causal measures which can be applied to the analysis of long- run and short- run as well as causal characteristics of dynamic economic system. We first summarized the relat2 ed concepts of cointegration , and then showed the procedure of cointegrated model identification. Based on the iden2 tified error correction model , we discussed causal measures in time domain and frequency domain. The presented Wald test of the causal measure is incorporation Johansen’s algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimates and the likelihood ratio tests. Using the Wald statistics , the paper also showed the computational algorithmof confidence- set construction for the overall causal measures. For the purposes of testing long- run or short- run characterization of causal relation , a variety of causal measures are introduced by means of the integral of the frequency-wise measure of one-way effect on specific frequency bands. In contract to the conventional tests of Granger’s non-causality which amount to testing the hypothesis of zero restriction of a certain set of autoregressive coefficients , the approach of this paper enables us to test not only Granger’s non-causality but also the strength of the one-way effect . The one-way effect causal analysis can be considered as an effective approach for the investigation of complex economic system

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姚 峰.动态经济系统分析的经济计量模型与方法[J].管理科学学报,2003,6(2):

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