有限供应的现货市场与期权合约下的采购策略
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李建斌( 1980—) ,男,江西波阳人,博士,副教授. Email: jimlee@ amss. ac.

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国家自然科学基金资助项目( 70901029) .


Procurement policy based on portfolio contracts and spot market with limited capacity
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    摘要:

    在随机现货价格与随机需求相独立的情况下,当现货市场供应量有限时,本文采用期权组合合约建立两阶段采购风险管理模型,以期最大化零售商的期望利润. 文中提供了甄别有效合约的算法,得到零售商的最优采购策略,并进一步用算例分析了现货市场的供应量、现货价格和客户需求的波动性对最优采购策略的影响,发现当现货市场的供应量增加时,零售商应减少有效合约的总预订量及执行价格最低的有效合约的预订量; 当现货价格和客户需求的波动性增大时,零售商应提高有效合约的总预订量及执行价格最高的有效合约的预订量,且降低执行价格最低的有效合约的预订量.

    Abstract:

    As spot price and customer demand are independent,this paper investigates a two-stage procurement risk management model based on portfolio contracts and spot market with limited capacity. An algorithm is proposed to identify active contracts and derive the optimal procurement strategy. Moreover,a numerical example is introduced to study the impacts of capacity in the spot market,spot price volatility and demand vola-tility on the optimal procurement strategy. Given the distribution functions of demand and spot market price, as the capacity of spot market increases,the retailer should decrease the optimal reservation amounts of active contracts as well as active contract with the lowest execution cost,and as spot price and demand become more and more volatile,the retailer should enhance the optimal reservation amounts of active contracts as well as ac-tive contract with the highest execution cost,but lessen the reservation amount of active contract with the low-est execution cost.

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李建斌,杨瑞娜.有限供应的现货市场与期权合约下的采购策略[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(7):43~54

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-15
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