School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Economics and Political Science,University of St. Gallen,St. Gallen 9000,Switzerland 在知网中查找 在百度中查找 在本站中查找
School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;School of Banking and Finance,The University of New South Wales,Sydney NSW 2052,Australia 在知网中查找 在百度中查找 在本站中查找
Selecting the trading information of corporate bonds with the credit rating of AAA and treasury bonds in China’s bond market on a monthly basis,and solving the Svensson ( 1995) model of term structure of interest rates through genetic algorithm,the paper gives more exact yield curves of both types of bonds and derives the credit spreads. After time series analysis of China’s bonds with different terms of maturity,it can be concluded that all the credit spread series have one unit root and show the characteristics of autoregressive and moving average. The R-squared of ARMA model gives better fitness than the multiple linear regression model. The VAR model can fit the dynamic relationship among credit spreads well. Impulse response analysis implies that the shock from other series of credit spreads to one sequence of credit spread will result in severe fluctuations with low magnitude in the first 10 terms and the impact does not have long and continuous effect. The empirical results provide the basis of decisions for investors and regulators to some extent.