分组评标专家行为的演化博弈分析
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刘旭旺(1983—),男,河南漯河人,博士,讲师.Email:liuxuwang007@163.com

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国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(70931001);国家自然科学基金资助面上项目与创新群体项目(61273203);国家自然科学基金创新群体资助项目(60821063)


Analysis of referee experts’behaviors for grouped bid evaluation based on evolutionary game
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    摘要:

    逆向拍卖已经成为政府和大型企业集团集中采购的重要途径,评标机制是影响招投标公平性和资源配置的重要因素。分组多属性评标是当今普遍采用的评标机制,在评标专家有限理性的前提下,会诱导技术专家和商务专家之间的对立情绪和评标的不合作行为。本文首先建立了多属性逆向拍卖分组评标行为的博弈支付矩阵,构建了专家评标行为的复制动态方程,然后,运用演化博弈理论分析了技术和商务评标专家评标行为的演化路径以及影响演化的因素,揭示了评标专家个体间的策略选择对群体行为的影响。为系统和定量的研究评标行为,基于MatlabGUI平台开发了多属性逆向拍卖分组评标行为演化仿真系统。最后用数值仿真演示了初始条件的改变和决策参数的不同取值对演化结果的影响。本文的分析方法和结果可以为评标组织和管理部门提供决策支持,以采取适时的管理对策,引导评标专家向着长期合作的方向演化,提高评标公平性。

    Abstract:

    Reverse auctions are widely used for centralized procurements in large enterprises and government department.The bid evaluation mechanism is a key factor for a fair auction and resource allocation. The current bid evaluation process is usually done by two groups,a business and a technical expert group,respectively.When human factors are taken into consideration,the antagonistic feelings and noncooperation behaviors between groups inevitable preveal. Firstly,the paper constructs a noncooperative game model based on grouped bid evaluation behaviors in order to analyze the conditions for achieving a long-term cooperative equilibrium between groups,meanwhile,it obtains the replicator dynamics equations about the technical-business experts game. Secondly,it analyzes the evolution paths and the factors influencing the bidding evaluation behaviors based on the evolutionary game.We also describe the effect of individuals’choice of policy on group behaviors.Third,to maximize the clarity on these bid evaluation behaviors,we develop a simulation system based on the evolution process and run it several times on a Matlab GUI platform,which is convenient for adjusting relevant parameters.The simulation results prove the effects of decision-making parameters as well as start-up variants on initial conditions that determine further ( possible) evolutions.The methods and results presented in this paper can enhance the decision-making support of administrative departments in their bid evaluations of procurements in order to guide the referee experts’behaviors into the desired channels to achieve optimal outcomes,so that a more judicious bidding evaluation process may result.

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刘旭旺,汪定伟.分组评标专家行为的演化博弈分析[J].管理科学学报,2015,18(1):1~12

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-17
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