国际金融市场波动非线性因果性和溢出效应
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夏南新( 1961—) ,男,江西南昌人,博士,教授,博士后导师. Email: xianx@ mail. sysu. edu.cn

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国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(15AJL005) ; 国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(12ZDA020)


Nonlinear causality and spillover effect of volatility of international finance market
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    摘要:

    针对人民币、欧元、日元兑美元的官方汇率,选取了2008 年金融危机前后各三年的数据参照对比分析,计算三者汇率的均值方程的残差之间的交叉相关(cross-correlation function,CCF),利用Yin-Wong Cheung,Lilian K.Ng 检验统计量和Hong Y.检验统计量,验证3种汇率的标准残差的方差之间的非线性因果关系,并以此信息为依据构建BEKK-MGARCH 模型,分析了人民币、欧元、日元兑美元的汇率的波动溢出效应,进而验证了各个变量序列方差之间非线性因果关系的稳健性. 在Hong 检验中引入了截断核函数,使得对低阶时滞项赋予了较大权重,从而准确地刻画近期波动对当前波动影响更大的特征. 在建立Vector GARCH 模型之前,很少有文献先进行方差的非线性因果关系检验,即使进行了简单检验,通常错误地把Q2(p)当作变量序列的方差之间的非线性因果关系检验统计量.

    Abstract:

    By computing the residual cross-correlation function (CCF) , this paper attempts to explore the nonlinear causality and spillover effect of volatility of the series of the official exchange rates of China,Europe and Japan,respectively,against the USA dollar by employing daily data from Jul. 21,2005 to Dec. 23,2011.Test statistics of nonlinear causality of conditional variance developed by Yin-Wong Cheung,Lilian K. Ng and Hong Y. are used to examine the nonlinear causal relationship between the variances of standardization residual of the three kinds of exchange rates. There upon,a BEKK-MGARCH model is built. Finally,the nonlinear causality and spillover effect of volatility on these exchange rates in post financial crisis era are analyzed and interpreted,and the robustness of the nonlinear causal relationship between the variances of time series is verified. he embedding of the truncated kernel function in Hong test causes the low order lag terms a given greater weight,thereby accurately portrays the characteristics that recent fluctuations have a larger impact on current fluctuations. Prior to the establishment of the Vector GARCH model,few literatures tested the nonlinear causal relationship first,even though some conducted a simple test,they mistakenly treated Q2(p) as the test statistic of the nonlinear causal relationship between the variances of variable sequences.

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夏南新.国际金融市场波动非线性因果性和溢出效应[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(3):64~76

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-22
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