金融安全、国家利益与外汇储备优化管理
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罗素梅( 1975—) ,女,云南楚雄人,博士,讲师. Email: luosumei@ shufe.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金资助项目( 71573170; 71573050) ; 上海市哲学社会科学规划项目( 2015BJB003)


Financial security,national interests,and optimal management of foreign exchange reserves
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    摘要:

    本文以金融安全与国家利益为视角,首先,根据外汇储备需求理论,将外汇储备划分为金融安全储备和国家利益储备. 其次,尝试性地引入安全第一准则,构建基于金融安全的外汇储备优化配置模型. 再次,通过对理论模型求解和数值模拟,测算出外汇储备的金融安全规模和国家利益规模,并对其进行优化配置. 研究表明,当前我国可将65% 左右外汇储备用于满足金融安全,而其余35%左右可用于实现国家利益. 本文认为,外汇储备作为国家金融资产,应主要用于维护国家金融安全和实现国家战略利益及经济利益. 外汇储备可通过对接“一带一路”战略、支持人民币国际化和支持企业“走出去”,以及促进对外直接投资等国家战略,实现国家利益的最大化,同时在这个过程中自动“冲消”过多的外汇储备. 因此,当前外汇储备管理中,外汇储备过多过少的问题已不是讨论的重点,管理部门也不用主动抑制外汇储备增长,而更应关注如何提高其使用效率.

    Abstract:

    This paper is based on the perspective of financial security and national interests. Firstly,according to the theory of foreign exchange reserves demand,foreign exchange reserves are divided into financial security reserves and national interest reserves. Secondly,the paper introduces the safety first criterion and constructs the foreign exchange reserve optimization model based on the financial security. Thirdly,by calculating the theoretical model and numerical simulation,the financial security scale and the national interest scale of the foreign exchange reserves are calculated,and the allocation of the foreign exchange reserves is optimized. The paper shows that China can use about 65% of its foreign exchange reserves to meet the financial security, while the remaining 35% can be used to achieve national interests. This paper agrees that foreign exchange reserves, as the national financial assets,should be mainly used to safeguard national financial security and achieve national strategic interests and economic interests. By docking“The Belt and Road”strategy,foreign exchange reserves can support the internationalization of the RMB and the enterprises to“go out”,as well as the promotion of foreign direct investment and national strategy,to achieve the maximization of national interests. At the same time,excessive foreign exchange reserves can be reduced automatically. Therefore,in the current foreign exchange reserves management,the scale of the foreign exchange reserves is not the focus of discussion. The management departments should not actively curb the growth of foreign exchange reserves,butshould pay more attention to how to improve their efficiency.

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罗素梅,周光友,曾 瑶.金融安全、国家利益与外汇储备优化管理[J].管理科学学报,2017,20(12):1~18

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-19
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