中美贸易摩擦对中国股市行业板块的影响研究——基于中国股市行业板块间风险溢出网络的实证分析
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作者单位:

1.东北大学工商管理学院;2.青岛大学经济学院

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中图分类号:

G10,G18,C33

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:71671030);国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:71571038);国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目编号:71971048);辽宁省“兴辽英才”青年拔尖人才项目(项目编号:XLYC1907015);中央高校基本科研业务费(项目编号:N2006010)


Impact of China-US Trade Friction on the Industries of China’s stock market:Empirical Analysis Based on the Risk Spillover Network between industries of China’s Stock Market
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Affiliation:

1.School of Business Administration of Northeastern University;2.Qingdao University School of Economics

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    摘要:

    以“2018年中美贸易摩擦事件”为时间节点,分别构建贸易摩擦前、后的中国股市行业板块间风险溢出网络。通过因子分析法,利用多种有向网络的出(入)中心性指标,构建反映各行业风险传染及风险承受强度的综合指标。从各行业板块间风险溢出效应、股市整体稳定性、网络结构变化特征等角度,多维分析中美贸易摩擦事件对股市的影响,探究影响各行业风险传染强度和风险承受强度的因素以及在贸易摩擦背景下识别影响网络变化的主要因素。研究表明:网络对随机攻击具有较强的鲁棒性、对蓄意攻击具有脆弱性,中美贸易摩擦事件促使中国股市整体系统性风险的加剧及稳定性水平的下降,并降低网络的鲁棒性。从短期角度,中美贸易摩擦对网络的稳定性变化具有决定性影响;从中长期角度,中美贸易摩擦对网络的稳定性变化的影响逐渐减弱,而宏观经济指标、汇率、货币政策等经济政策将逐渐主导网络稳定性的变化。贸易摩擦后,各行业的风险溢出效应发生不同程度的改变,其主要影响因素也不尽相同。行业对应的节点在网络中的聚类系数越大,则其在股市中的风险承受强度越小、风险传染强度越大;行业对应的节点在网络中的点强度越大,则其在股市中的风险承受及传染强度越大;行业的在险价值( VaR)越大,则其在股市中的风险承受强度越大,行业的系统性风险贡献度(△CoVaR )越大,则其在股市中的风险传染强度越大。研究结论对我国金融监管部门进行宏观审慎管理、把控系统性风险、维护金融市场稳定性具有一定参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Taking the " China-US Trade Friction in 2018" as the demarcation point, the risk spillover networks between industries of China's stock market before and after the trade friction are respectively constructed. Through factor analysis, multiple out-centrality(in-centrality) indicators of the directed networks are used to construct comprehensive indicators that reflect the risk contagion and risk tolerance of various industries. We analyzed the impact of the China-US trade friction on China’s stock market from various perspectives, including the risk spillover effect between industries, the overall stability of the stock market, and the changing characteristics of the network structure, explored the factors that affect the risk contagion intensity and risk tolerance intensity of each industry, and identified the main factors affecting the network changes in the context of the China-Us trade friction. The results indicate that the network is robust to random attacks and vulnerable to deliberate attacks. The China-US trade friction has led to an increase in the overall systemic risk and a decline in stability of China’s stock market, and reduced the robustness of the network. From a short-term perspective, the China-US trade friction has a decisive impact on the stability of the network; From a medium- to long-term perspective, the impact of the China-US trade friction on the network stability gradually weakens, and economic policies such as macroeconomic indicators, exchange rates, and monetary policies will gradually dominate the changes in network stability. After the trade friction, the risk spillover effects of various industries have changed to varying degrees, and the main influencing factors are also different. The greater the clustering coefficient of a node in the network, the smaller the risk tolerance intensity and the greater the risk contagion intensity of its corresponding industry in the stock market; The greater the node strength of a node in the network, the greater the risk tolerance intensity and the risk contagion intensity of its corresponding industry in the stock market; The greater the industry’s value at risk ( VaR), the greater its risk tolerance intensity in the stock market; The greater the industry’s systemic risk contribution (△CoVaR) , he greater its risk contagion intensity in the stock market. The research conclusions can provide some references for China’s financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain financial market’s stability.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-05
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-28
  • 录用日期:2021-02-09
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