分析师文本语调会影响股价同步性吗? ——影响机制与中介效应
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国人民大学商学院;2.清华大学经管学院;3.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F830.9

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目);北京市社会科学基金项目;中国人民大学科学研究基金项目


Does Textual Tone in Analyst Reports Affect Stock Price Synchronicity? ——Mechanisms and Mediating Effects
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Business school in Renmin University of China;2.School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua;3.Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    本文考察了分析师研究报告的文本语调对股价同步性的影响与作用机制。首先爬取2006至2018年中国A股上市公司377,644份分析师报告,随机选出10,434句文本并人工分为积极、中性、消极三类形成语料库,以此训练11种机器学习方法并比较各方法的预测准确性,最终选择朴素贝叶斯方法估计出分析师研究报告的文本语调。实证分析发现,分析师积极的文本语调显著降低了所追踪公司的股票同步性。这一结果与已有多数研究结论不同,但在做空机制欠发达的中国资本市场,个体选择性知觉理论为此提供了很好的解释。本文进一步对分析师文本语调作用于股价同步性的三种影响机制进行了路径分析和中介效应检验。结果表明,分析师积极的文本语调通过激励公司发布更多公告、引导机构投资者买入和吸引其他分析师发布研究报告,显著降低了股价同步性。上述结论在多项稳健性测试中依然成立。本文的研究对于投资者关注研报语调指标、上市公司加强信息披露、政府部门完善资本市场制度均具有重要启示。

    Abstract:

    This study explores the effects of textual tone of analyst reports on the stock market information efficiency and its mechanisms. On the basis of 326,425 sell-side analyst reports of Chinese listed firms from 2006 to 2017, 10,434 clauses from analyst reports are randomly selected and these training materials are manually classified these into positive, neutral or negative category. Then 11 machine learning methods including Na?ve Bayes, logistic regression, neural network, etc., are applied to predict the tone of each clause based on the training materials. Predictive accuracy of 11 machine-learning methods is compared. Na?ve Bayes, which proves to be the best method of forecast, is finally used to measure the analyst report tone. The empirical results show that the tone of analyst report is negatively associated with the stock price synchronicity of the companies. Although the results are different from most of conclusions of the existing researches, they can be well explained by the individual selective perception theory in the capital market of China, where the short-selling mechanism is underdeveloped. Furthermore, we analyze three mechanisms of the above negative effects and test the mediating effects of stakeholder behaviors. The results indicate the analyst’s positive textual tone improves the information efficiency of the stock market by (1) stimulating the firms to issue more announcements, (2) guiding institutional investors to buy and (3) attracting other analysts to release more reports. The above conclusions remain tenable in multiple robustness tests. This study has important implications for investors to focus on the index of textual tone, for listed companies to strengthen the information disclosure management, and for government departments to improve the capital market system.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-17
  • 最后修改日期:2019-12-16
  • 录用日期:2020-01-02
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
您是第位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2025 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn