央行行长口头沟通的股票市场效应研究
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1.中山大学岭南学院;2.中国农业银行股份有限公司 贵州省分行

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


The Stock Market Effect of the Central Bank Governors’ Oral Communications
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1.Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University;2.Guizhou Province Branch, Agricultural Bank of China

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    摘要:

    金融市场是货币政策传导的重要环节,研究信息沟通这一新的货币政策工具的股票市场效应,对于理解货币政策的有效性以及金融稳定具有重要意义。在各种沟通方式中,尤以央行行长的口头沟通最为及时和权威,本文通过有监督的词典分析方法,对中国人民银行行长2003年1月至2019年2月间所有口头沟通事件进行量化,进而考察央行行长信息沟通的股票市场效应。研究结果表明,央行行长信息沟通的股票市场效应主要体现在影响日内价格波动和收益率波动,并且这种波动效应存在多个层面的异质性:从沟通内容看,相比经济形势沟通,货币政策沟通对股票市场收益率波动的影响更为显著;从沟通方向看,相比宽松倾向沟通,货币政策的紧缩倾向沟通引起了更大的波动;从时效性和针对性来看,央行沟通具备预期管理功能,但仍存在明显的改进空间,特别是沟通当天反而加剧了股票价格的震荡,并且影响力度小于实际干预。

    Abstract:

    Financial market is a key link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Investigating the stock market effect of information communication, a new monetary policy tool, is of great significance for understanding the effectiveness of monetary policy and maintaining financial stability. Among various communication methods, the verbal communication of the governor of the central bank is the most timely and authoritative. This article uses a supervised dictionary analysis method to conduct all oral communication incidents of the governor of the People’s Bank of China from January 2003 to February 2019. The research results show that the stock market effect of central bank governors’ information communication is mainly reflected in the impact of intra-day price fluctuations and yield volatility, and this volatility effect has multiple levels of heterogeneity. From the perspective of communication content, compared with economic situation communication, monetary policy communication has a more significant impact on the volatility of stock market returns. From the perspective of communication, communication about monetary policy tightening tends to cause greater volatility than communication with loose tendencies. From the perspective of timeliness and pertinence, central bank communication has anticipatory management functions, but there is still obvious room for improvement, especially on the day of communication, which intensified the volatility of stock prices, and the impact was less than actual intervention.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-10
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-29
  • 录用日期:2021-02-09
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