The development of global value chains and regional trade liberalization poses new challenges to the measurement of effective protection rate (EPR). This paper constructs a new EPR measurement method in the Global Multi-regional Input-output Model, and develops Bilateral Industry Tariff Database to reveal the latest trends in China's EPR, conduct simulate analysis on Sino-US trade friction and its possible future scenarios. The results show that from 2000 to 2014, China's overall EPR fell from 22.25% to 12.56%, thus, the producers in China are facing a more and more competitive situation. Industrial EPR is positively correlated with the change of the ratio of industrial value added to GDP, so the resource allocation effect of tariff is obvious. However, the inter-industry differences in EPR are shrinking, means that the policy space for tariff measures in allocating resource is narrowing. The Sino-US trade friction will increase the EPR of the chemical raw materials, an industry contains many backward production capacity, which will have adversely effect on supply-side reforms, and will also reduce the EPR of some labor-intensive industries, such as textile, apparel and leather products industries, and shock employment. Both CPTPP and RECP can alleviate the change of EPR caused by Sino-US trade friction in some industries, and help alleviate the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction.