股市信息不对称对股价暴跌的影响——基于不确定性的新视角
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作者单位:

1.上海大学经济学院、复旦大学金融研究中心;2.复旦大学经济学院

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F830.9

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国家自然科学基金资助项目;国家社会科学基金重大项目;中国博士后科学基金;上海市“超级博士后”激励计划


Stock Market Asymmetric Information Would Have an Effect of Contributing to Stock Price Crash: From a New Perspective of Uncertainty
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1.School of Economics, Shanghai University;2.School of Economics, Fudan University

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    摘要:

    在理性预期均衡的框架内,本文构建了市场微观结构的理论模型,并在模型中引入了不确定性,得以从不确定性的全新视角在理论上揭示了股市信息不对称对股价暴跌会有正向的影响,股市中信息不对称的程度越高,股价暴跌幅度便会越大,而且此正向的影响会随着不确定性的增大而增大.本文还以A股市场2010至2015年的分笔高频数据为样本,计算了A股市场股票的知情交易概率,并据此实证检验了股市信息不对称对股价暴跌的影响.实证结果也表明:股市信息不对称与股价暴跌显著正相关,股市中信息不对称的程度越高,股价暴跌幅度便会越大.本文另外还根据证券分析师的预测数据构建了A股市场个股的不确定性指数来度量股市中的不确定性,并基于不确定性指数识别出了不确定性在股市信息不对称对股价暴跌的影响中具有放大效应,即股市中的不确定性越大,股市信息不对称对股价暴跌的影响也会越大.本文的研究结论不仅丰富和深化了对股价暴跌成因的既有认识,还为防范和化解股票市场异常波动提供了新的理论依据和决策参考.

    Abstract:

    We build a market microstructure model within the framework of Rational Expectations Equilibrium and deliberately factor uncertainty into our model so as to study from the perspective of uncertainty whether and how stock market information asymmetry would contribute to stock crash. Our model demonstrates that market information asymmetry does contribute to stock crash, and that the greater the information asymmetry, the deeper stocks would plunge, the greater the uncertainty in the market, the greater the impact information asymmetry would have on stock crash. We then calculate the probability of informed trading of A equities listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets according to the relevant tick data from 2010 to 2015 and use the calculated probability of informed trading as a measure of information asymmetry of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. And we conduct empirical tests according to the calculated probability of informed trading to find that there exists a significant positive correlation between market information asymmetry and stock crash, and usually the greater the market information asymmetry, the deeper stocks would plunge. In addition, we also formulate uncertainty indexes for A equities listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, using the uncertainty indexes for measuring stock market uncertainty, and in the light of the uncertainty indexes we discover that market uncertainty tends to increase the impact information asymmetry would have on stock crash, i.e. the greater the uncertainty in the market, the greater the impact information asymmetry would have on stock crash. Our findings do not only add to the existing knowledge about the causes of stock crash, but also sheds new light on how to prevent abnormal volatility on stock markets.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-08
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-01
  • 录用日期:2022-07-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-08-02
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