空间溢出与城投债信用风险——基于长三角城市群生产要素引力网络
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南京大学

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F290,F832. 5

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国家自然科学基金项目(青年项目,重大项目),中国博士后科学基金


Spatial spillover and credit risk of urban investment bonds: Based on the gravitational network of production factors within Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
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Nanjing University

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    摘要:

    已发生的多起城投债技术违约和城投公司非标融资违约打破了城投债刚性兑付“信仰”,城投债的信用风险成为关注焦点. 在国家实施城市群战略的背景下,基于长三角城市群生产要素引力网络,实证分析了城市群空间溢出对城投债信用风险的影响,发现: 第一,城市群内部存在信用风险空间溢出,区域内城投债信用风险溢价同向变动. 第二,其他城市尤其是外围城市金融发展的空间溢出呈正外部性,能够降低本城市城投债信用风险. 第三,其他城市尤其是中心城市的经济发展可能存在负外部性,会导致本城市尤其是外围城市城投债的信用风险上升. 为地方政府有效利用城市群发展机遇、合理制定财政政策以及防控区域系统性金融风险提供了借鉴.

    Abstract:

    The technical default of urban investment?bonds and the default of urban?investment companies' non-standard financing have broken the long-standing “belief” in the rigid payment of urban investment?bonds, and the credit risk has become the focus of attention. Under the background of the implementation of the urban agglomeration strategy in China, based on the gravitational network of production factors within the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of urban agglomeration spatial spillover on the credit risk of urban investment bonds. The study finds that: 1) There is a spatial overflow of credit risk within the urban agglomeration, and the credit risk premiums of urban investment?bonds in different cities fluctuate in the same direction. 2) The financial development of other cities especially peripheral cities is positive externality, which can reduce the risk. 3) There may be negative externalities in the economic development of urban agglomerations especially the peripheral cities, which will increase the credit risk. It provides a theoretical and factual basis for local governments to make effective use of the development opportunities of urban agglomeration, reasonably formulate fiscal policies and prevent and control regional financial systemic risks.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-23
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-13
  • 录用日期:2022-06-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
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