Industry (including electric power industry) is China’s largest source of carbon emissions. Exploring a reasonable and effective pathway of industrial emission reduction is the key to the smooth realization of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This paper decomposes the driving factors of the historical evolution path of China's industrial carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019, predicts the potential evolution path of industrial carbon emissions from 2019 to 2060 under various scenarios, estimates the amount of investment required in the process of carbon neutrality, and discusses the heterogeneity of required investment for different emissions abatement timing options. The research finds that: 1) Scale effect and efficiency effect are the most critical driving factors in the historical evolution path, while the clean conversion of fossil energy, the internal structural change of fossil fuels, and the clean energy substitution have less influence; 2) The future core emission reduction technology path of non-power industry is energy efficiency improvement and clean energy consumption substitution, while the future core path of electric power industry is clean energy generation substitution; 3) At the current technological level, the process of industrial carbon neutrality requires a huge investment of more than 300 trillion yuan, which is mainly concentrated in the carbon-intensive non-electric industry. At the end of this paper, the strategic choice of realizing China's industrial carbon neutrality is put forward, which is "technology as the core, market as the mechanism, and policy as the guidance".